Two weeks to the day of the 2020 U.S. Presidential election, and the incumbent is probably done and dusted. Certainly POTUS 45, Donald Trump, has been behaving in a manner in which he believes he is. The Real Clear Politics polling average shows Democratic challenger Joe Biden ahead 51.1% to 42.5%, and that’s nearly the biggest lead that he’s ever had.

It’s well outside the bounds of the margin of error, and when you consider that 30 million Americans have already voted early, it’s a disheartening reality for Trump and his cult of followers.

Naturally, Biden is standing as the main favorite with odds at -166 but over the last few days Trump has improved his odds from +184 to +139. Although when we say improved, we have to remember that just last week, the reality TV star’s odds were as long as they have ever been. Another factor to consider is the stability of the odds, recently, in Biden’s favor. That’s reflective of the astounding stability that we’ve seen in the polling favoring Biden. It’s been a generation since we’ve seen the favorite in a Presidential race maintain a lead this consistently and comfortably. 

It shows in the state polling too- as Real Clear Politics links polls that convey a sizable lead for Biden in Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Taking the Upper Midwest would be enough to claim the Electoral College for Biden, as Trump’s E.C. path is limited in routes. At Electoral-Vote, you’ll see Biden up 340-198, with a couple striking pieces of information. They count whomever is leading in their totals, no matter how slim the margin, and Trump’s 198 includes 38 from Texas, where he’s only up 2%, and 16 from Georgia, where he’s up just one.

That’s astounding when you consider how deeply red those two states have been in recent years. Obviously, the natural question is “well what about 2016?” Yes, Hillary was up, and all the people in the prediction business had her winning.

However, she was never up this big, the 2016 race showed much more volatility in the polling, overall, and at this point in the campaign, she didn’t have a near double digit overall lead while a significant chunk of the electorate had already casted their ballots.

No wonder Trump is saying goofy things at his rallies like “suburban women, please like me!” (lots of ways you can go in analyzing that statement) and “Joe Biden will listen to the scientists” (is that supposed to be an attack?). Just yesterday he even threw in a “if elected, Joe Biden would listen to Dr. Fauci.”

When you’re in a once-in-a-century pandemic, where 220,000 Americans have already died, and your opponent is claiming you would listen to the nation’s top infectious disease expert…why even campaign? Your opponent seems to be doing it for you. Just do the political equivalent of kneeling on the football three times and punt it back. Just keep doing that because your opposition just can’t help themselves.

Paul M. Banks runs The Sports Bank, partnered with News Now. Banks, the author of “No, I Can’t Get You Free Tickets: Lessons Learned From a Life in the Sports Media Industry,” has regularly appeared in WGN, Sports Illustrated, Chicago Tribune and SB Nation. Follow him on Twitter and Instagram.

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Many people I know believe in this idea of love at first sight. For me, I just don’t buy it. Now, I am not saying that you can’t love the way a person looks at first sight. In that case wouldn’t we all share love at first sight with Ryan Reynolds? I am also not saying that there isn’t such a thing as lust at first sight. I am sure most of us have had first dates where we go home with our hearts pounding out of our chests and we think “Game over. I’ve met my soulmate. He paid for dinner AND he’s sexy!” All I am trying to say is that sometimes no matter how strong the feeling, no matter how sure you think you are, if you haven’t ever been on a ‘spur-of-the-moment’ last minute vacation across the country with this person, there’s no way you’ll ever know. 

6 days and 5 hotel rooms later was all it took for me to go from “Love at first sight” to “Seriously? Why the f*** do you need to unpack and assemble all your sh*t in the hotel drawers for?!” To give this situation some personal context, yes. Yes I did take a spontaneous last minute trip to Colorado and Southern Utah with my family this past week. Everything was sudden and the weather was going to be perfect where we were headed. I had about fifteen minutes to pack and decide if I should invite my new boyfriend who I had consecutively spent the past 21 days with along on this impetuous 19 hour road trip. Well I figured what’s 6 more? Little did I know the first new thing I’d learn about him would be before the road trip even began. He was a slow packer. 

To put it simply, things got a bit ‘Rocky’ in the Rocky mountains. Mr. Perfect was no longer perfect in my eyes and I highly doubt brushing my teeth with toothpaste on my finger and reworn jeans for three days in a row had any saving on my perfect streak. They say love can move mountains but it surely wasn’t strong enough to move his hand to the check after our ribeye dinner in Vail. Though, despite the chaos, I had an epiphany. Maybe love at first sight is a real thing. If people stopped treating monogamy as an “all or nothing” situation there can be multiple love at first sights. With the same person. I don’t need to live with you to stay loyal to you. In fact, I’d rather you handle your zit cream before you pick me up for our ribeye dinner. And until the day comes where he comes home from his 9-5 and sees you on the couch with no makeup, messy bun, and an oversized ketchup stained t-shirt and loves the way you look just as much as that night in your little black dress, then you can travel across the country on spontaneous road trips together. 

(Ps hi C if you’re reading this I thought it was funny and you know I love you <3)

Disclaimer:  I haven’t posted to Channeling Shoeless Joe for a while. When the Sox were ailing during the rebuild, for whatever reason, I felt I had more to say.  Now that they have a chance to separate from pretty good to great, I feel compelled to share once again.

Either you were surprised by the White Sox 2020 abbreviated season playoff qualification or you expected it.  For those of you that were surprised, what did you think was still missing?  For those of you that expected it, will essentially maintaining the status quo (allowing for some like Luis Robert, Nick Madrigal, Dane Dunning, and Garrett Crochet et al. to further improve) yield a championship in 2021 or 2022?

In my estimation, the architect of this rebuilding project, Rick Hahn, a.k.a. The Man Who Traded Fernando Tatis, Jr., has three choices.  They are:

• Stand pat: The only glaring holes right now are at designated hitter, in right field, and in the #3 spot of the starting rotation.  The number three overall pick in the 2019 draft, Andrew Vaughn, is essentially a one spot player defensively. That spot is first base, yet it is currently occupied by the man that deserves the 2020 MVP Award for the American League, Jose Abreu.  By all accounts, other than an emergency start on the mound (he began his career at The University of California as a two way player), Vaughn isn’t going to play any other position.  However, a certain $12 million designated hitter will most certainly not have his option picked up after a horrendous season at the plate. Thus, Vaughn can slide in here and occasionally offer Abreu rest at first.  No huge expenditure needed.

Hahn might also assume that Nomar Mazara’s power outage was an aberration, as he hit 79 home runs between 2016-2019, despite only hitting one this season.  Additionally, he will only be 26 years old (April) for the 2021 season, so in theory there is still room for growth and development. (For those at home shaking your head, you need only look at our shortstop, who didn’t hit his stride until his age 26 season, when he raised his batting average 95 points and his on base percentage 76 points.)

Finally, the three spot in the rotation.  Lucas Giolito has solidified himself as the number one.  Dallas Keuchel exceeded expectations in his first year with the Sox, recording a 1.99 earned run average over 63.1 innings pitched.  Then…the number three spot.  Dylan Cease still can’t command his healthy fastball (his four seamer averaged 97.5 miles per hour this season according to Baseball Savant), Dunning has seven career starts in the majors (not including his abbreviated 15 pitch effort against Oakland in the playoffs; thanks for the confidence Ricky the Departed), Gio Gonzalez was a complete non-factor, and Reynaldo Lopez had (past tense?) no confidence in himself whatsoever and that translated to his performance on the mound.  And, oh ya, Michael Kopech is still on the team, I guess.  Minus Gonzalez, is it possible one of these aforementioned players can compete for the three spot in the rotation next year, and once there, solidify it? Absolutely.  Cease and Kopech are currently 24 years old, Dunning is 25, and Lopez is 26.  The question is, at this point, are the Sox willing to be patient?

The only free agent of consequence (I believe James McCann is a consequential free agent, but the Sox are very unlikely to keep him, unless…) is closer Alex Colome.  If the Sox choose not to invest in him with a three or four year deal, they have a wealth of choices to anoint as the next closer, including Aaron Bummer, Matt Foster, Codi Heuer, Crochet, and even Kopech.

• Tweaks: As stated, the biggest needs are at DH, right field, and an additional starter in the rotation.  This is true provided the Sox resign Colome, which we’ll assume in this scenario and the next that they are fully prepared to do. 

Realistically, all signs point to the Sox not investing in another aging and declining one dimensional DH and going with the young bat in Vaughn.  However, Mazara in RF and Cease/Dunning/Lopez/Kopech in the three spot in the rotation to begin 2021 are far less likely.  So in the tweak section, we’ll default to the realistic rather than the bombastic.

The Sox have pursued Joc Pederson from the Dodgers for the last two years. Annually, the Sox covet a powerful left handed bat and Pederson fits the bill, as well as his ability to play any outfield spot capably and efficiently.  However, his slash line of .190/.285/.397 with 7 home runs and 16 runs batted in doesn’t differ much from Mazara’s extremely underwhelming .228/.295/.294 line with 1 home run and 15 runs batted in.  It’s more likely that the Sox would seek to poach a veteran bat from an organization that may want to restock its farm system a bit.

David Peralta is an under the radar veteran right fielder with the Diamondbacks.  The Diamondbacks underachieved this year, despite a massive investment in left handed starting pitcher Madison Bumgarner, and they may be looking to trim some excess dollars from their 25 man roster.  Peralta looks especially expendable as the Diamondbacks premium asset in their minor league system is without question their depth of blue chip outfield talent.

Peralta’s .300/.339/.433 line with 5 home runs and 34 runs batted in looks mighty healthy compared to that of Mazara and Pederson.

Trade:  The Sox obtain RF David Peralta from the Arizona Diamondbacks for the #20 and #21 ranked prospects in their farm system (OF Benyamin Bailey and LHP Konnor Pilkington, respectively) and C/1B/DH Zack Collins.

Bailey is only 19 years old and years from major league relevance.  Pilkington, a former third round pick out of Mississippi State, is somewhat of an afterthought behind bigger, more pedigreed arms in the system, and it is obvious due to his usage this year (and Yasmani Grandal’s signing) that the Sox don’t see a long term fit for former first round pick Collins. 

The rotation tweak and replacing McCann could both be done by adding old friends. Free agent LHP Jose Quintana is coming off injuries to both his thumb and back and could be had for a reasonable one year, bounce back deal. From 2013-2016 with the White Sox, prior to being traded to the Cubs for Cease and Eloy Jimenez, ‘Q’ never threw fewer than 200 innings and never started fewer than 32 games.  During that time frame, his earned run average stayed between 3.20 and 3.51 and he never walked more than 56 hitters in a season. 

If Quintana can find that mojo again, Cease/Dunning/Lopez/Kopech and perhaps even Jimmy Lambert, Jonathan Stiever or Crochet could battle it out for the final two rotation spots.

Lastly, with Collins jettisoned to Arizona, the Sox could bring back catcher Tyler Flowers, who played with the Sox from 2009 to 2014.  Together, ‘T-Flo’ and Grandal would form the best pitch framing duo in baseball. 

• 2021 has to be the year or Hahn starts to panic about having ‘The Man Who Traded Fernando Tatis, Jr.’ spray painted on his tombstone: 2020 wasn’t enough, right?  It can’t be another 12 years until the Sox make the playoffs again. That would be an overwhelmingly disheartening waste of ‘The Core’.  If 2020, God forbid, was the apex, then Hahn is going to have to sell his home in Winnetka and move to Greenwich, Connecticut and commute every day to Wall Street.  Kenny Williams might have to transition to a gig with the Board of Trustees at Stanford. Jerry Reinsdorf, well, he’ll be really really old 12 years from now.

That is unless Hahn and Company employ *a little radical abandon in their off season moves.

Trade 1:  The Sox obtain P Joe Musgrove and RF Josh Bell from the Pittsburgh Pirates for the #7, #8, #10, and #14 ranked prospects in their farm system (P Stiever, P Matt Thompson, 1B Gavin Sheets, and OF Blake Rutherford, respectively) and IF Danny Mendick.

The Sox have an abundance of young arms at the major and minor league levels.  They just can’t afford to be patient with all of them, nor can they covet them so much that they neglect trade opportunities. Sheets is blocked by Abreu and Vaughn and two thirds of the Sox outfield is set for the next decade, so Rutherford’s potential can be molded elsewhere.

The Pirates aren’t going to contend, well, ever, so Musgrove and Bell are expendable. Musgrove, 28 years old for the 2021 season and Bell, who turned 29 in August, are both controllable for two more years each.  Musgrove is a former blue chip prospect of the Astros.  The 2011 first round pick had a 3.86 earned run average in 2020 and struck out 55 hitters in 39.2 innings pitched.  He is an extremely solid number five starter for a competitive team.  As a matter of fact, in that spot, he would most likely be the best number 5 starter in Major League Baseball. 

Bell had a down year in 2020, which makes his availability seem more likely. However, his big left handed bat destroyed all comers in 2019, which his .277/.367/.569 slash line with 37 home runs, 116 runs batted in, and 37 doubles clearly illustrates.  He is the left handed power that Mazara was not. 

Trade 2:  The Sox obtain P Jack Flaherty from the St. Louis Cardinals for 2B Madrigal, P Dunning, and (unranked) prospect IF Zack Remillard.

Madrigal lovers:  How many 31 foot squib hits to the left or the right of the mound can one man accumulate over the course of a year?  Eventually, Madrigal’s luck is going to run out and his BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) is going to plummet.  At that point it will be revealed that he is a former 4^thoverall pick that has become a utility infielder for a non-contending team.  In other words, sell high.

Dunning can mature with the Cardinals (he actually had a better year statistically than Flaherty in 2020) and Flaherty can slot nicely behind Keuchel to form the playoff trio the Sox were missing in 2020.  In 2019, Flaherty was 11-8 with a 2.75 earned run average, 33 starts, only 135 hits allowed in 196.1 innings pitched and an unreal strikeout to walk ratio of 231 to 55.  If he replicates those numbers in 2021, the Sox will not be one and done in the post season.

He is only 25 years old and still has three years of team control.  And if you didn’t know, he played high school baseball with a pitcher named Lucas Giolito at Harvard-Westlake in California. Giolito-Keuchel-Flaherty.  Oh, sounds nice.

Trade 3:  The Sox obtain P Patrick Corbin and the #29 ranked prospect in the Washington National system, OF Nick Banks for C Grandal and P Lopez.

Raise your hand if you’re a devout Sox fan and you’ll miss Grandal.  Ok, to the four of you, get over it.  Grandal was an extremely underwhelming, overpaid addition in 2020.  The Sox have a starting catcher that is better defensively and better handling a pitching staff.  This is addition by subtraction.  Getting rid of Grandal assures the Sox will keep McCann.  But Grandal is expensive (he still has about $55 million on his deal), so the Sox would have to take a likewise inflated contract for a player that underperformed in 2020.  Enter Corbin, an integral part of the 2019 World Champion Washington Nationals. 

His numbers were pedestrian in 2020:  2-7 with a 4.66 earned run average.  But if Corbin can revert to his 2019 form (14-7, 3.25 earned run average, 202 innings pitched, 238 to 70 strikeout to walk ratio), the makings of a championship team will be set. 

Corbin is 31 years old and is signed through the 2024 season.  He would become the Sox highest paid player at $23 million per year.

Free agent signings:  The Sox sign SS Didi Gregorius to a 3 year/$52 million deal.  The Sox sign IF/OF Kike Hernandez to a 2 year/$10 million deal. 

The Sox would need to replace Madrigal at second base.  Could 52 million enticements convince the uber talented and ridiculously likeable Gregorius to move to second base to accommodate the shortstop incumbent Tim Anderson?

Gregorius is the left handed bat (along with Bell) that the Sox have long coveted. He had a solid .284/.339/.488 slash line in 2020 with 10 home runs and 40 runs batted in (the 40 rbi would have placed him third on the Sox behind Abreu and Jimenez).  In his last significant full season in 2018, Gregorius hit .268/.335/.494 with 27 home runs and 86 runs batted in.  His defensive skills would transition nicely to second base as he ages (31) and those power numbers are enormously attractive for the two hole.  The athleticism up the middle (Anderson, Gregorius, and Robert) would be unique and entertaining.

Finally, due to Leury Garcia’s inability to stay healthy and Yolmer Sanchez’s inability to hit a baseball, the Sox would bring in Hernandez to do what he does best off the bench-put up pedestrian offensive numbers in the regular season, play well defensively at seven different positions, and hit unbelievably clutch home runs in the post season. (Remember what he did to the Cubs in 2017?  Did you see his pinch hit home run this year against the Braves in Game 7?!)

What do this line up and rotation look like?

SS Tim Anderson

2B Didi Gregorius

1B Jose Abreu

LF Eloy Jimenez

RF Josh Bell

3B Yoan Moncada

CF Luis Robert

DH Andrew Vaughn

C James McCann

Starting rotation:  Lucas Giolito, Dallas Keuchel, Jack Flaherty, Patrick Corbin, Joe Musgrove

With the rotation bumping some young starters to the bullpen, your power arms include Foster, Heuer, Crochet, Cease, Kopech, and Bummer.

Why not?

*Ok.  A lot of radical abandon.

I’m posting a little early for two reasons.
First, the increasing numbers of COVID-19 cases has required the lockdown to be re-instituted in Will, DuPage, Kane and Kankakee. That means outdoor seating only, carryout howlers and crowlers where available, and earlier closing time. Full details at this link (WGN). I will keep updating with cancellations or changes. As always, call ahead, and wear your mask!

But we already have a casualty, though it’s in Chicago. Hamburger Marty, the LGBQT+ bar chain, is closing it’s Andersonville outpost. The last day of operation will be November 1, but the originally planned schedule of events will go on until then. The Facebook announcement noted that they had planned to seek a new location as their lease expired, but for now they will wait until the business environment improves. This their Andersonville Brewing operation had already been replaced with a tap room for Urban Brew Labs. The spinoff Oak Park Brewing Co. remains independently operated.

Meanwhile, the Open Bottle beer store in Tinley Park is going ahead with plans to expand to a Lemont location. The new store would be on 159th Street near I-355. Porchdrinking.com has details.

But I’m also posting early because I get to take part in the media Preview for the 2020 Bourbon County Stout release. It’s taking place Wednesday at home through Zoom. I expect to report on all 7 varieties when I;ve recovered my senses.

Friday, October 23

Saturday, October 24

Sunday, October 25