Despite the number of people falling ill or worse, dying from the coronavirus, for many of us – the consequences of the quarantine order is not all negative.

Hunkered down here in my home, I have had a lot of time to reflect on the meaning of the coronavirus and ponder what it is supposed to be teaching me.  As a person who believes that all of life is in divine order whether I understand it or not, here are a few of my conclusions:

First, I notice that people are more concerned about each other’s wellbeing. I have made and received numerous phone calls from family and friends just to inquire about my family’s health. One family member went so far as to organize a Zoom family check-in meeting where numerous relatives across the country participated. What a great idea and one that I hope will continue once this pandemic subsides.  Why get together only during a crisis?

Second, I finally have no excuse to put off longtime home projects which have been on my ‘to-do list’ for anywhere from two to five years. Channeling my inner Marie Kondo, I have begun tackling cleaning out my basement of thirty years’ worth of flotsam and jetsam. This project may well take me until the end of the year, hopefully long after the pandemic has subsided.

Third, I have observed more relaxed attitudes among the people I encounter on my daily walks. People tend to be walking more slowly, taking the time to smile and speak as we pass each other.

Fourth, I have the time to do more e-learning without any pressure. I can keep up with my French conversation and learn how to use new technology in anticipation of more online teaching.

Fifth, I have more leisure time to do those activities I enjoy.  Reading, writing, walking, Sudoku, and jigsaw puzzles are at the top of my list. I can take my time doing each of them.

Sixth, I have more time to catch up with friends I don’t get to see often. With most people either at home or working from home, it is far easier than at other times of the year. So satisfying to be able to have time for a leisurely phone conversation renewing bonds.

The unexpected consequence from the coronavirus quarantine: the gift of time.

Since last week’s post on the impact of the coronavirus on the Chicago real estate market was the first one this is by default week 2. Let me start with the latest data on contract activity and inventory – just got it yesterday – which goes through March 14. So it’s about a week behind and doesn’t reflect any impact from Pritzker’s stay at home order issued on Friday. However, a lot of people were already staying home before they were told to do so.

There were 294 detached homes put under contract, which is a 10.9% increase from last year. However, attached home contract activity actually declined by 9.1% to 418. So a bit of a mixed bag here. And the available inventory tells a similar story. Remember that normally at this time of the year inventory is rising. Instead we are seeing the number of homes on the market flat to slightly declining. Detached inventory dropped 9.5% to 2777 units while attached inventory dropped 0.9% to 4927.

So if you’re looking to buy right now there’s going to be less to choose from than last year. Frankly, we’re hearing that buyers are holding back and sellers – or their tenants – really don’t want people walking around their homes right now depositing coronavirus on everything.

What The Data Tells Us About People Looking To buy

I turned to Google Trends to see what I could glean about home buyer interest by looking at two search terms: Chicago realtor and Chicago homes for sale. Here is the graph and the last data point is for the week ending March 21, so it’s a little more current than the contract activity data above.

It’s not totally conclusive because there is a ton of variability in the data but it sure seems to suggest that interest started to taper off in that week. Compare the last data point to the first data point on the graph.

The Stock Market Still Doesn’t Like The Real Estate Stocks

Last time I looked at Realogy, among others, and it is now down 78.4% from its peak. Last time I did not take a look at Remax but I’m here to tell you today that it is now down 49% from its peak. And, meanwhile, Zillow announced that they are going to slash their expenses by 25% in order to ride out the coronavirus mess.

Although Compass is not a publicly traded company, the free spending, Softbank backed company announced yesterday that they are laying off 15% of their staff – about 375 people. According to TheRealDeal:

With the economy reeling from the coronavirus pandemic, the Softbank-backed brokerage said it was projecting a 50 percent drop in revenue over the next six months.

“We aren’t just facing an economic recession, we are facing an economic standstill,” CEO Robert Reffkin wrote in an email to agents. “The best we can hope for is a V-shaped recovery as opposed to an extended recession.”

Keep in mind that Softbank is the same company that backed and got burned by WeWork so they are most likely keeping a tight leash on their portfolio companies these days. One of Compass’ main attractions for realtors is their support and technology so it remains to be seen what these cuts will do to agent retention.

Mortgage Rates Are Not Helping

The mortgage rate graph below is once again from NerdWallet and it shows just how volatile rates have become over the last few weeks. They are well above their recent lows, with the exception of the 5/1 Arms, which may have hit new lows. But the other rates actually recently hit 3 month highs – not the lows the media might be promising you these days.

The iBuyer Model May Be Dead

Last week I speculated that this whole catastrophe might be the end of the iBuyer business model and sure enough a series of announcements came out this week from most of the major players in this space. Zillow, Redfin, Realogy, and Opendoor all suspended their iBuyer programs yesterday because of the pandemic. Notice that they all “suspended” their programs which technically means that they could resurrect them once this whole thing (hopefully) passes. Then again they may just conclude that that business is too risky and this is a great way to exit the business without losing face.

#RealEstate #ChicagoRealEstate #Coronavirus

Gary Lucido is the President of Lucid Realty, the Chicago area’s full service real estate brokerage that offers home buyer rebates and discount commissions. If you want to keep up to date on the Chicago real estate market or get an insider’s view of the seamy underbelly of the real estate industry you can Subscribe to Getting Real by Email using the form below. Please be sure to verify your email address when you receive the verification notice.

As my mother’s caregiver, I have learned how to handle various aspects of life including job seeking, freelancing, self-care, and creativity. In the midst of the current coronavirus/COVID-19 pandemic, I find myself reflecting on the lessons I am learning about self-discipline in isolation and self-care and how these impact my caregiving effort.

One of the greatest ironies that I perceive is that my own tendency to self-isolate and keep my distance has served me well when it comes to my social distancing efforts. Dealing with an immunocompromised mother (due to a liver transplant and anti-rejection mediations) has increased my awareness and sensitivity around preventing potential complications. My own efforts towards self-care had increased before the pandemic with an increased motivation to care for my physical and mental health. (Like many other male caregivers, I can drift into depressive episodes if I am not careful). My social activities have increased slightly, but are still erratic: given their professional and personal responsibilities, touching base with others can be challenging but I am experiencing an increase in connection).

Photo by Gordon Dymowski

However, this “leveling of the playing field” has also lessened the obvious stress and strain on my caregiving efforts. Recently, I had to run two short (but critical) errands on a quarter-mile stretch of a major street. Except for the occasional dog walker, the street was devoid of cars and pedestrians. Walking down that stretch on a Friday afternoon had an eerie, silent quality which had a calming effect on me. Both venues that I visited had a moderate number of patrons, many of whom were rushed to acquire what they needed and get home. Having time to spend on personal and creative efforts has helped alleviate the perpetual fear of missing out that comes to me regularly as a caregiver.

One of the most powerful effects of being a caregiver during the COVID-19 pandemic is that I have a greater sense of empathy and compassion towards others. It is not just an effort to pay the kindnesses shown me forward, but to actively and assertively express that compassion. Self-isolation and social distancing may presently be the most compassionate acts towards others, but being able to show (and receive) smaller kindnesses can be rewarding. It’s never easy; last week was especially challenging since I served as an election judge for the 2016 primary; had several events cancel at the last minute, and an effort to run an online screening did not go rather well. Despite my desire to last out in anger, keeping my cool and remaining calm comes more easily from a compassionate approach.

Photo by Gordon Dymowski

Compassion as a caregiver can be challenging, especially when dealing with negative or obnoxious behavior. On the lighter end, many people do not know how to speak to a caregiver so dealing with those lapses in judgment can be annoying. But on the other end, with many people taking advantage of the COVID-19 pandemic by hoarding hand sanitizer or buying out supplies from a Dollar Tree can be especially infuriating. (Especially since many caregivers deal with relatives who may have intestinal or digestive problems). However, compassion in challenging times comes from the smaller kindnesses of friends. Unexpected gifts both physical and emotional, ranging from an unexpected video chat to a surprise coffee mug, provide plenty of fuel for being compassionate as a caregiver.

We are living in uncertain, disquieting, and anxiety-provoking times. This is not a feel-good solution, and should not be read as a dismissal of those facing especially challenging times. One of the greatest lessons that I continue to learn as a caregiver is that compassion may not always be easy, but it is extremely necessary. 

I would enjoy hearing from others and getting their perspectives: please leave your comments below or join the conversation on our Facebook page. If you wish to comment privately, use this email contact form.

As always, thanks for reading and stay safe!

Ted Dabrowski: At what point is human & economic toll of shutting down America… How does that compare to potential human toll of the virus itself.

Tonight’s City of Chicago edition of Public Affairs features Ted Dabrowski, President of Wirepoints debating w/show host Jeff Berkowitz (1) whether the Fed’s and State Government policy to create a catastrophic economic meltdown was (and is) good public policy and (2) whether IL and Chicago will be hurt much more than other states & cities by the meltdown.

******

The show airs tonight in Chicago at 9:50 pm on Cable Ch. 21 (CAN TV).

The show also airs tonight and next Tuesday night in 25 Chicago Metro North and Northwest suburbs at 8:30 pm:

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SELF-ISOLATION, DAY 8

It is the 8^th Day for me! I don’t know why that is a day to celebrate, except that I am, fingers crossed, still feeling well.

My daily routine, my rhythm, is off. I struggle normally with focus and attention, although it still works. Probably I will remain disorganized til I die because that is how I am. Gives me something to work on.

But my routine today included more walks outside with and without my dog, and I took her also for a ride in the car so she gets out a little more. She sleeps most of the time but I think she needs some change in environment. I am eating more vegetables, which amazes me. Not a huge change but I did not grow up being fond of vegetables and since I cannot go anywhere except work, I am starting to be more creative in feeding myself and working on my natural exercises. I do see more people in the area walking and jogging. I did not count them, no statistics, but this could be another positive aspect of the pandemic. Trying to find something good about all this. When I go back to work Friday I intend to make more use of gloves and disinfectant wipes. I hope there will not be a crowd. Dealing with lots of customers is still an issue which has not been adequately dealt with.

Well, this is short today. Wishing everyone to not give up, keep sheltering in place, take care of your children and each other.

Stay well and keep your Faith.

March 24, 2020

I have posted this because there are still beer releases going on. Just for curbside pickup or growler sales. More of these will be added as they are scheduled. I am continuing to update the four articles “stickied” to my home page detailing brewer and beer bar contingencies during the shutdown.

While this seems the worst time to open a new place, life does go on. Printer’s Row Brewing announced on their Facebook page that they have received a zoning variance from the city of Chicago for their planned brewery at 4801 N. Austin Ave.

Friday, March 27

Saturday, March 28

Sunday, March 29

Most children don’t and won’t cross this uncool school street
Because of who they don’t and won’t want to meet
She’s creepy and cruddy from her head to her feet
She’s the Zombie Crossing Guard of North Mulberry Street
So the children walked farther away to a farther street
So they do not have to see or flee or happen to meet
The Zombie Crossing Guard of North Mulberry Street

But one kind kid whose name was Pete
Was not at all afraid from his head to his feet
As quick as a flick Pete walked to North Mulberry Street
With his backpack and knapsack all proper and neat
Pete said, “I’d like to have help with crossing this street”
“I want to cross safely this North Mulberry Street”

The Zombie Crossing Guard smiled and greeted Pete
And said, “I’ll get you safely across this North Mulberry Street”
The skies started to darken, first rain, and then sleet
Out came an umbrella from her tall Zombie seat
Pete walked across as dry as a fly his journey complete

Then the other children saw on North Mulberry Street
That the Zombie Crossing Guard was really quite sweet
Now the students hurry and scurry with their happy fleet feet
Crossing with the Zombie Crossing Guard of North Mulberry Street