All odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook.
What you need to know for the Monday playoff games
Hold off on Horford: Al Horford has found the fountain of youth this postseason. He tallied 22 points, 16 rebounds and 5 assists against the Bucks on Saturday and cashed just about all of his props. But should you go back to the well? He has averaged 13.9 points and 9.6 rebounds this postseason, numbers that are reflected in his DFS price tag and prop market. However, he’s shooting 50% from 3-point range with the majority of his shots coming from deep. That is impressive, but not exactly sustainable. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown accounted for 73.8% of the points from Celtics’ starters and 65.5% of their shots, following Boston’s first loss in the series. That leaves little meat on the bone for Horford, considering he has averaged one free throw attempt every 40 minutes this postseason. His scoring floor is lower than the prop markets suggest.
Taking the under: There were 254 points scored in Game 3 between the Grizzlies and Warriors. With Gary Payton II sidelined, the Warriors’ defensive efficiency was 3.6% better than in their first seven games this postseason. That’s not to suggest that they are better without Payton, but their game plan was clear: stop everyone not named Ja Morant. The Grizzlies star made 13 of 21 shots while his teammates shot just 27-of-71 (38%), making it logical to assume the Warriors employ a similar strategy Monday night. While Memphis welcomes back Dillon Brooks, counting on volume from anyone except Morant is dangerous. Golden State should be able to limit the efficiency of the Grizzlies’ supporting pieces. Fourteen of Golden State’s 17 best games in terms of defensive efficiency came in front of their home crowd. So you should take the under on any of Memphis’ team and player props. — Jim McCormick & Kyle Soppe
Breaking down the Monday games
Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks
7:30 p.m. ET, Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee
Line: Bucks (-1)
Money line: Bucks (-115), Celtics (-105)
Total: 212 points
BPI projected total: 216 points
BPI win %: Celtics (59.2%)
Questionable: None
Ruled out: None
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Notable: The Celtics covered the closing line Saturday by half a point and the nail-biting nature is nothing new for Boston. Five of its past seven games have been decided by seven or fewer points. To that end, over their past six games, the Celtics are 5-1 ATS and unders hold the same mark.
Best bet: Brook Lopez over 17.5 points + rebounds
The Bucks are dominating inside scoring and had 52 points in the paint in Game 3. Lopez had 13 points and 10 rebounds and has averaged 11 PPG and 6.0 RPG so far this postseason. We should see this trend continue Monday night. — Eric Moody
Best bets: Celtics ML (-102), Celtics 1Q (+0.5), Jayson Tatum over 3.5 made 3s. I believe the Boston will win outright Monday night and win the series. Giannis Antetokounmpo had an insane game Saturday after the Celtics’ defense limited him in the first two games. Despite Antetokounmpo’s performance, the Bucks almost lost the game in the final seconds. The Celtics will be hungry for a victory and come out hot as they did in Game 2, outscoring Milwaukee 32-21 in the first quarter.
As for player props, I am looking at Tatum over 3.5 made 3s. He should step up his game after going 4-for-19 from the field and 0-for-6 from 3 in Game 3. This line may seem high, but Tatum went 4-for-9 and 5-for-10 from beyond the arc in the first two games respectively. Typically, players bounce back after a rough performance, especially superstars like Tatum. — Erin Dolan
Best bet: Jrue Holiday over 1.5 steals
Holiday has averaged 1.5 SPG during the playoffs. The Celtics only committed 12 turnovers in Game 3, but Holiday recorded three steals. — Moody
Best bet: Under 212.0 points
This series has been a defensive slugfest. Both the Celtics and Bucks have averaged 196.3 combined points over the past three games, with no game higher than 204 points. There is nothing to suggest that pattern is about to change. Both teams are among the most physical, defensive-minded groups in the league and the pressure just keeps ratcheting up on both sides. I expect another close defensive battle in Game 4 with a low score. — Andre Snellings
Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors
10:00 p.m. ET, Chase Center, San Francisco
Line: Warriors (-10)
Money line: Warriors (-550), Grizzlies (+400)
Total: 223.5 points
BPI projected total: 225.6 points
BPI win %: Warriors (60.8%)
Questionable: None
Ruled out: Ja Morant
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Notable: Game 3 on Saturday flew over the 225.5 total with 254 points, but be careful in assuming we see something like that again tonight. The next time consecutive Memphis games go over the total this postseason will be the first, with unders a perfect 3-0 following Grizz overs (going under by an average of 17.3 points).
Best bet: Stephen Curry over 33.5 points + assists
Curry has averaged 27.6 PPG and 5.6 APG so far this postseason. He had his 44th career 30-point game in Game 3, tied for the third-most among active players. With Ja Morant expected to miss Game 4, Curry should deliver a spectacular performance. — Moody
Best bet: Andrew Wiggins over 23.5 points + assists + rebounds
Wiggins had one of his best performances with the Warriors in Game 3. His shot selection and defense were excellent and he has averaged 16.7 PPG, 1.3 APG and 6.7 RPG- in this series. Wiggins should surpass those averages in Game 4 with the level of confidence he is playing with right now. — Moody
Best bet: Draymond Green over 7.5 assists
Green had a game-high eight assists in Game 3 and he’ll likely be a distributor again for the Warriors’ plethora of shooters. Green has averaged 7.0 APG in the playoffs. — Moody
Best bet: Under 224.5 points
The Grizzlies performed shockingly well without Morant during the regular season, winning 20 of the first 22 games Morant missed. The formula included playing stronger defense to help make up for their poorer offensive execution. Both of these patterns suggest Game 4 should be lower-scoring. — Snellings
Best bet: Dillon Brooks over 17.5 points. Brooks returns from a nearly two-game absence Monday night, and with Morant likely out he should become a focal point of the Grizzlies’ offense. Brooks averaged 19.8 PPG without Morant from Nov. 26 to Dec 19. And then averaged 20.9 PPG when Morant was absent again from March 20 through April 9. Brooks could be in for a great scoring night. — Snellings