With MLB implementing a 60-game schedule set to kick off in late July, and the MLBPA signing off on a July 1st report start date for a three week ramp up for training, lets assume all of the health and safety protocols will be met and break down which 60 players the Cubs could bring north with them to participate throughout the 2020 season.
Teams will be able to carry 30 players on their active roster for the first two weeks of the season. The following two weeks that number is trimmed to 28 before finally settling on the new standard of 26 players that was set to be instituted this season.
Beyond the 30 players that will open the season in Chicago, another 30 players will form a tax squad which will serve as a pseudo-Minor League system. This taxi squad will not be playing games or function as a AAA team however. Envision it as Spring Training workouts without the games. Players will stay in game shape by practicing and working on skills development.
As MLB rosters shrink to normal size during the first month, the taxi squad will grow correspondingly to 32 and finally 34 players. As of now, it appears the Cubs squad will practice nearby at the newly renovated facilities of their Midwest League affiliate in South Bend.
Current 40-man roster
The core of the 60 players will of course be formed by the club’s 40-man roster. As a reminder, here is how the Cubs roster currently stands:
SP (11): Darvish, Lester, Hendricks, Quintana, Chatwood, Mills, Alzolay, Rea, Cotton, T. Miller, Steele
RHRP (11): Kimbrel, Jeffress, Wick, Sadler, Megill, Underwood Jr., Winkler, Tepera, Maples, Norwood, Rodriguez
LHRP (2): Ryan, Wieck
C (3): Contreras, Caratini, Amaya
IF (8): Rizzo, Hoerner, Bryant, Baez, Bote, Descalso, Z. Short, Ro. Garcia
OF (5): Schwarber, Happ, Heyward, Souza Jr., Almora Jr.
Prominent non-roster invites from Spring Training
Because the taxi squad won’t be playing actual games, there will not be a need to get as specific with filling out a complete roster with overlapping coverage at each position. The Cubs can instead focus on the handful of players that were already challenging for roles with the 2020 club before Spring Training was interrupted. The four that made the best case were:
2B Jason Kipnis, C Josh Phegley, CF Ian Miller, and LHRP Rex Brothers
I actually believe that at least half of these players will be added to the 40-man roster so that they can participate as part of the expanded 30/28-man rosters the first month of the season. Kipnis appeared to be in line to displace Daniel Descalso as the platoon 2B and left-handed bat off the bench. I still expect that roster move to occur.
From there it gets a little more hazy. All three of the remaining players from the list above are likely to play a role on the active roster during the year, but it is important to keep in mind amidst all of the talk of the expanded rosters that the 40-man roster rules still apply. To make the active 26/28/30-man roster room must be made on the 40-man first.
One move I expect to see will be Manuel Rodriguez being placed on the 60-day IL. The Cubs added the young reliever to the roster last fall to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft was injured late in Spring Training. While I have not seen specifics on the injury, I do recall hearing some rumblings that it was arm related. As Rodriguez was not expected to impact the AAA, let alone the MLB roster this season, it seems like an easy decision to place him on the 60-day IL. This will enable better use of his roster spot and allows them to play it safe with his injury, regardless of its severity.
So that frees up one additional spot for either Phegley, Miller or Brothers. The only other 40-man spots taken up by prospects who weren’t expected to make the AAA team are occupied by Justin Steele and Miguel Amaya. Could I envision the club using minor injuries with either as justification for moving them to the 60-day IL? Sure, but those players do need to be injured, a doctor needs to sign off on it, and I’m sure the league is going to be closely monitoring all teams to make sure this type of move isn’t abused.
What may be more likely to come into play is that the Cubs currently have a huge number of right-handed relievers on their 40-man roster. Assuming no other players come down with injury that enable them to utilize the 60-day IL, that leaves Rule 5 pick Trevor Megill, out-of-options Duane Underwood Jr. potentially vulnerable.
Also keep an eye on Ryan Tepera, Dillon Maples, and James Norwood. All three are talented, but each will be burning their final Minor League option year in 2020. Colin Rea, Jherel Cotton, and Robel Garcia will have one additional option year available in 2021 but if any of them falter they could end up on the chopping block as well.
Other veteran non-roster invites from Spring Training who could receive taxi squad consideration include: LHRP Danny Hultzen, LHRP C.D. Pelham, C/UT P.J. Higgins, UT Trent Giambrone, and UT Hernan Perez. The Cubs are thin at LHRP and SS so I think Hultzen and one of Giambrone or Perez have the best odds.
Higgins had a nice spring, but given the allowance for a DH, expanded benches, and short season his versatility as both a catcher and infielder become less valuable. He’s actually a player more suited to the short benches teams used in previous seasons. Given Phegley likely has the veteran 3rd catcher spot sewn up, and the Cubs have both Amaya and Kyle Schwarber available in a pinch, they may see Higgins as a luxury. However, given all the side work pitchers will be doing, it is also possible the club will simply need extra catchers (just like in Spring Training) to handle the workload in practices.
Prospects
All of the above is a roundabout way of saying I expect the Cubs to utilize approximately 45 of the 60 slots on their 40-man roster and then a handful of players that would have formed the core non-roster players for Iowa this season. That leaves anywhere from 12-15 slots available for the organization’s top prospects to participate and make up for some of the lost development time.
First up, that means Brailyn Marquez, Brennen Davis, and 2019 1st rounder Ryan Jensen are locks. We don’t need a debate here.
I also believe it is safe to assume upper level starting pitchers Cory Abbott, Keegan Thompson and Jack Patterson will be included. We all know there could be multiple spots in the Cubs rotation up for grabs next spring. I imagine the club wants to work with that trio and let them match up against high level hitters this summer in preparation for the rotation competition expected to occur whenever next season begins.
That leaves anywhere from 5-10 spots available for:
RHP: McAvene, R. Thompson, Franklin, Rucker, Mekkes, Uelmen
LHP: Little
IF: Rivas, C. Morel, Strumpf, Weber, Ademan
OF: Roederer
My priority would be Michael McAvene, Riley Thompson, Kohl Franklin, Luis Rivas and Cole Roederer. After that it gets a little fuzzy.
Michael Rucker and Dakota Mekkes have middle relief talent and are close to MLB-ready, but the Cubs already have a lot of right-handed relief depth for this year. Erich Uelmen performed well in the 2019 AFL, and the Cubs will need to make a 40-man decision on him this winter. The same goes for his fellow 2017 draftee Brendon Little. The lefty former 1st rounder has been inconsistent and suffered some nagging injuries. Could they use this opportunity as a last barometer, or have the already made a decision regarding his upside?
Former top prospect Aramis Ademan will also face Rule 5 eligibility this offseason. The shortstop’s progress has stalled in High-A the past two years. Do the Cubs want or need to see more before making a decision on him?
The projected Myrtle Beach infield of Chase Strumpf, Andy Weber and Christopher Morel will draw some consideration depending on how many taxi squad spots end up available. Morel possesses the greatest upside and is also in need of the greatest refinement. I’d lean toward him as my priority from that group, but Strumpf is probably the most ready for the challenge.
Draft Picks
I’m on the fence when it comes to including 2020 1st round pick Ed Howard in the group of 60. I see the merits, but if the Cubs actually believe an expanded Arizona Fall League can be arranged Howard may be better suited for that environment. I will support whichever decision the Cubs make with the young shortstop.
There is almost no debate in my eye when it comes to 2nd round lefty Burl Carraway. His stuff is electric. It is already MLB caliber. What he needs is refinement with his control and this seems like the perfect environment in which to work with him on it.
No Brandon Morrow
You may have noticed one prominent NRI from this spring not included above. That is because according to reports Brandon Morrow will not be an option for the Cubs this season. There was no reason given, and I know the most likely explanation is that his arm just never responded as he hoped this year, but I also think it is possible Morrow simply decided the risk of pitching under these circumstances (with little financial incentive in his case) as simply too great.
My best guess
Opening Day 40-man Roster:
SP (11): Darvish, Lester, Hendricks, Quintana, Chatwood, Mills, Alzolay, Rea, Cotton, T. Miller, Steele
RHRP (10): Kimbrel, Jeffress, Wick, Sadler, Megill, Underwood Jr., Winkler, Tepera, Maples, Norwood
LHRP (2): Ryan, Wieck
C (4): Contreras, Caratini, Phegley, Amaya
IF (8): Rizzo, Hoerner, Bryant, Baez, Bote, Kipnis, Z. Short, Ro. Garcia
OF (5): Schwarber, Happ, Heyward, Souza Jr., Almora Jr.
Removed (2): Rodriguez (60-Day), Descalso
Additional 20 players for taxi squad
*UPDATE: I forgot that Rodriguez and Descalso will occupy two spots, at least initially, even if they are eventually removed from 40-man, so below list was updated to only include 18 players. The players under consideration could make their way as injury replacements (if that is going to be allowed):
RHP (6): Rucker, Mekkes, Abbott, K. Thompson, Jensen, McAvene
LHP (5): Brothers, Hultzen, Marquez, Patterson, Carraway
C (1): Higgins
IF (3): Giambrone, Perez, Rivas
OF (3): I. Miller, B. Davis, Roederer
Also under consideration: SS Weber, SS Ademan, SS Howard, 2B Strumpf, 3B C. Morel, OF Zagunis, OF Dewees, RHP Adam, RHP Uelmen, RHP R. Thompson, RHP Franklin, LHP Pelham, LHP Olson, LHP W. Short, LHP Little
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