Cubs @ Reds Series Preview: (7/27-7/30)on July 27, 2020 at 8:41 pm
Cubs Den
Cubs @ Reds Series Preview: (7/27-7/30)
today at 3:41 pm
The Cubs got their short season sprint off to a good start by taking two of three from the division-rival Brewers. Quality pitching efforts from Kyle Hendricks and Tyler Chatwood were the keys to the winning weekend. The offense had been stagnant before Sunday’s nine-run outburst.
It wasn’t all good news for the Cubs, however, as the bullpen continues to be an area of concern. The Brewers jumped on it when Yu Darvish was lifted early in Saturday’s loss. Kris Bryant also had a cold weekend, but I’m not very worried that is a long-term trend.
Chicago now heads out on the road for the first time for a four-game series against the Reds in Cincinnati. The Reds are expected to be in contention in 2020, but stumbled this weekend, dropping two of three to a rebuilding Tigers team. Their lineup is deeper and the rotation should be improved over 2019.
Cincy handled the Cubs in 2019, taking 11 of 18 games against them. New addition Mike Moustakas was placed on the injured list as a precaution for flu like symptoms and will miss the series. This, and the mess in Miami, unfortunately are going to be the norm this season and will undoubtedly impact the results of 2020 if not cancel the season.
Even though there have only been three games played, this series is going to be a big one. A pair of teams that should battle for a division title playing almost half of their head-to-head meetings. Hopefully, the Cubs aren’t left seeing red at the end of this week.
Watch/Listen
Monday: 5:40 PM CT on Marquee SN/670AM
Tuesday: 5:40 PM CT on Marquee SN/670AM
Wednesday: 5:40 PM CT on Marquee SN/670AM
Thursday: 5:10 PM CT on Marquee SN/670AM
Lineups
Cubs
Reds
Bullpen Usage
Lineups and Bullpen Usage via Baseball Press.
Opposing pitchers
Scouting Reports from Brooks Baseball.
Wade Miley: Although he has not thrown an MLB pitch in 2020, Wade Miley threw 23,830 pitches that were tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2011 and 2019, including pitches thrown in the MLB Regular Season, the MLB Postseason and Spring Training. In 2019, he relied primarily on his Cutter (88mph) and Change using a Circle Change grip (81mph), also mixing in a Fourseam Fastball (91mph), Curve (76mph) and Sinker (90mph). He also rarely threw a Slider (82mph).
His cutter results in somewhat more groundballs compared to other pitchers’ cutters, has slightly above average velo, has some natural sink and has strong cutting action. His change generates more whiffs/swing compared to other pitchers’ changeups. His fourseam fastball has much less armside movement than typical and has essentially average velo. His curve generates a very high amount of groundballs compared to other pitchers’ curves and has a sharp downward bite. His sinker has surprisingly little armside run and has little sinking action compared to a true sinker. His slider has exceptional depth and generates fewer whiffs/swing compared to other pitchers’ sliders.
Sean’s note: Miley had a solid year for the Astros in 2019 with an ERA and FIP around 4. He always gets a ton of outs on the ground, a career rate of 49%. The lefty has been hard on the Cubs in his career especially when he was on the Brewers in 2018.
Tyler Mahle: Although he has not thrown an MLB pitch in 2020, Tyler Mahle threw 4,642 pitches that were tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2017 and 2019, including pitches thrown in the MLB Regular Season and Spring Training. In 2019, he relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (94mph) and Curve (81mph), also mixing in a Splitter (88mph) and Cutter (90mph). He also rarely threw a Change (87mph).
His fourseam fastball has some natural sinking action, has essentially average velo and has slight armside run. His curve is slightly harder than usual and has primarily 12-6 movement. His splitter generates a very high amount of groundballs compared to other pitchers’ splitters and is much firmer than usual. His cutter is a real worm killer that generates an extreme number of groundballs compared to other pitchers’ cutters and has slightly above average velo. His change (take this with a grain of salt because he’s only thrown 4 of them in 2019) generates an extremely high number of swings & misses compared to other pitchers’ changeups, is much firmer than usual, results in more flyballs compared to other pitchers’ changeups and has some natural sink to it.
Sean’s note: Young Mahle has good stuff, but got burned badly by the homer in 2019 allowing 25 in just 129.1 innings of work. Left handed hitters slugged better against him than right handers did. His best start of the season was against the Cubs at Wrigley Field last September.
Sonny Gray: Sonny Gray has thrown 17,568 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2013 and 2020, including pitches thrown in the MLB Regular Season, the MLB Postseason and Spring Training. In 2020, he has relied primarily on his Sinker (93mph), Curve (81mph) and Fourseam Fastball (93mph), also mixing in a Slider (84mph). He also rarely throws a Change (89mph).
His sinker generates a high number of swings & misses compared to other pitchers’ sinkers, is an extreme flyball pitch compared to other pitchers’ sinkers and has slightly above average velo. His curve has sweeping glove-side movement, results in more flyballs compared to other pitchers’ curves, has a sharp downward bite and is slightly harder than usual. His fourseam fastball generates an extremely high number of swings & misses compared to other pitchers’ fourseamers, is an extreme flyball pitch compared to other pitchers’ fourseamers, has much less armside movement than typical and has essentially average velo. His slider generates an extremely high number of swings & misses compared to other pitchers’ sliders, sweeps across the zone, has exceptional depth and is an extreme flyball pitch compared to other pitchers’ sliders. His change is thrown extremely hard, is basically never swung at and missed compared to other pitchers’ changeups, results in more flyballs compared to other pitchers’ changeups, has a lot of backspin and has slight armside fade.
Sean’s note: Gray had a huge year in 2019 with a strikeout rate of 10.29 per 9 innings. The balls opponents do put in play are on the ground a lot, 50.2% percent of the time last season. He went six strong innings in a opening-day win over Detroit.
Luis Castillo: Luis Castillo has thrown 7,345 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2017 and 2020, including pitches thrown in the MLB Regular Season and Spring Training. In 2020, he has relied primarily on his Change (89mph), Sinker (98mph) and Fourseam Fastball (97mph), also mixing in a Slider (88mph).
His change is thrown extremely hard, generates an extremely high number of swings & misses compared to other pitchers’ changeups, dives down out of the zone and has slight armside fade. His sinker has heavy sinking action, is thrown at a speed that’s borderline unfair, generates a high number of swings & misses compared to other pitchers’ sinkers, is an extreme flyball pitch compared to other pitchers’ sinkers and has slight armside run. His fourseam fastball generates an extremely high number of swings & misses compared to other pitchers’ fourseamers, has heavy sinking action, is an extreme flyball pitch compared to other pitchers’ fourseamers, is blazing fast and has slight armside run. His slider is thrown extremely hard, generates an extremely high number of swings & misses compared to other pitchers’ sliders, is an extreme flyball pitch compared to other pitchers’ sliders and has primarily 12-6 movement.
Sean’s note: Castillo had a breakout year of his own in 2019 with a strikeout per 9 of 10.67. Like Gray his ground ball rate was astronomical at 55%. He had a terrific start on Saturday striking out 11 Tigers in six one-run innings in a no-decision.
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Cubs @ Reds Series Preview: (7/27-7/30)on July 27, 2020 at 8:41 pm Read More »
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