Kris Bryant

Last Game: Cubs 5, White Sox 9

Up Next: Cubs (33-26) @ White Sox (35-24) 2:05 CST

Game Recap

The Cubs were game in the early going as they traded runs with the Sox through three innings. Jon Lester lasted just 3.2 innings in a tough matchup against a White Sox lineup which has been very good against against southpaws this year. Luck also happened to be against him. Two base hits in the White Sox five-run 4th inning carried expected batting averages of just .060 (with EVs of 52.1 and 78.3). Lester was clearly frustrated when pulled from the game. Ryan Tepera could not halt the bleeding as he surrendered a three-run rocket triple off the bat of Jose Abreu which gave the Sox the lead for good.

The Cubs were unable to keep up their early offensive output. After Kris Bryant launched a clutch two-out Grand Slam in the 3rd (man, did that feel nice), the Cubs managed just two more hits over the final six innings. In total the Cubs finished with five hits on the night, a figure they have often hit during their September offensive swoon. However, the luck the Sox had last night did not extend to the Cubs. They hit a number of balls well which did not find holes in the defense. This felt more like the final games in Pittsburgh where it was clear the Cubs were putting together better at bats, it just wasn’t paying off yet.

But as the Sox pulled away as the game went along any despair soon dissipated as the scoreboard reported the Brewers 3-0 victory over the Cardinals in St. Louis. The Cubs would clinch the NL Central for the first time in three seasons, victory or no victory. A triumphant finish would no doubt be more satisfying and instill greater confidence heading into the playoffs, but playing well at the start of the season has its perks. The Cubs may be 20-23 since August 14th, but their 13-3 record prior to then counts just as much in the standings.

Injuries, Updates, and Trends

• Magic Number: 0 <<<<<=======
• The Cubs are locked into the #3 seed for the playoffs. Who they will play is far from settled however. The Marlins are currently in line to matchup against the Cubs as the 6th seed, but the bottom of the NL playoff race is tightly packed, with the Cardinals, Reds, and Brewers all potential matchups for the Cubs depending on the outcomes on Sunday (and any potential makeup games that need to be played on Monday).
• Besides those four teams, the Giants and Phillies are still alive, and could push any of them out of the playoff picture (although the best they can do is the 7th seed, thus they are not potential opponents for the Cubs in the 1st Round).
• I know fans don’t want to hear excuses, don’t want to hear that the Cubs have had luck go against them at the plate this year, but it is true.
• In 2019, the Cubs finished as a slightly above average offensive team, mostly due to their above average slugging ability. Yes, they outperformed their expected SLG percentage a bit, but it was their inability to make contact which hampered their ability to consistently score runs. They were not unlucky in 2019, they were flawed. MLB’s Statcast backs this up. Their actual BA and WOBA were nearly identical to their xBA, and xWOBA. On individual levels, about the same number of players outperformed expectations (Bryant, Happ, Contreras) as underperformed (Schwarber, Almora, Descalso). It truly showed just how accurate and useful Statcast can be. They finished about league average or a tick above as a team in most rate statistics, and within reason of where their expected output should have placed them. It really was just their lack of contact which hampered them.
• That same flaw has hounded them again in 2020, and it would be easy to chalk up the greater frustration with the offense this season onto the failures of the core five, but there is more to it than that. Yes, Baez and Bryant have struggled mightily, but Statcast indicates they should be struggling. Just not this bad. Bryant is actually hitting the exact .205 that Statcast predicts, but his actual SLG is about .020 below his xSLG. Baez is hitting about .020 below his xBA and about .035 below his xSLG. Sure, even if they were getting the expected results their numbers would not be what we’ve come to expect from either, but their bad luck has extended to their entire team (save one). Unlike 2019 when there was a nice balance between the unlucky and lucky, Jason Kipnis is the only guy on the Cubs currently exceeding his expected outcomes at the plate. And that is simply mindboggling. Kipnis should be performing as poorly as Bryant and Baez. He’s far exceeding his batted ball profile (.194 xBA and .372 xSLG). Every other hitter has had luck go against them. Kyle Schwarber has seen the worst of it. His AVG is about .050 below where it should be, and his SLG about .070 off expectations. David Bote is right alongside him. Bote is actually hitting the ball hard far more often than he did last year, but his number are far worse. Rizzo too is hitting about 50 points below expectations. Hoerner and Conteras are both slugging about 65 points below. As good as Heyward has been this year, he should be hitting over .300 instead of hovering in the .260s.
• I’ve honestly never seen teamwide rotten luck like the Cubs have experienced in 2020:

Series preview is here.

Watch/Listen

Saturday: 6:10 PM CT on Marquee/670AM

Lineups

Cubs

W

1. Tim Anderson (R) SS

2. Yoan Moncada (S) 3B

3. Jose Abreu (R) 1B

4. Edwin Encarnacion (R) DH

5. James McCann (R) C

6. Luis Robert (R) CF

7. Adam Engel (R) LF

8. Nomar Mazara (L) RF

9. Nick Madrigal (R)

Starting Pitchers

Via mlb.com

Bullpen Usage

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  kkhiavi

  14 minutes ago

  In reply to stix:

  Not completely clear over what you’re asking exactly. My post in the last thread had more research and background into…
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  stix

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  Isn’t this the long way around proving how Darvish has the higher WAR?
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  kkhiavi

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  Great analysis the guy had a cupcake schedule but reds and a few z a national writers pushed him as…
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  Cubber Lang

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  Also, just even realized all those Darvish starts against playoff teams were his last 8 games pitched of the season.…
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  Cubber Lang

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  DOOOHHHH!!!! My math was bad adding up Darvish’s IP and thusly, his ERA… Darvish 52 IP,…
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Willson Contreras (AP Photo/Matt Marton)

Last Game: Cubs 10, White Sox 0

Up Next: Cubs (33-25) @ White Sox (34-24) 6:10 CST

Game Recap

Forget Yu Darvish’s seven shutout innings, and the two encouraging perfect innings by Dan Winkler and Andrew Chafin which completed the shutout… the Cubs scored some freakin’ runs, ladies and gentlemen.

You can breathe again.

Hopefully, this will allow the Cubs to loosen their grip on their bats, as well.

You could tell it was weighing on all of them. As frustrating as the recent offensive futility was for us to watch, it had to be worse to live through. These are all professionals with a lot of pride. All have reached the pinnacle of their profession and proven themselves time and time again. And for all of them to drown at the same time, for such an extended stretch… I almost can’t imagine how they must have felt.

“Picking your teammate up” when they fail is a fundamental of baseball culture. Given that the game, and hitting in particular, is often described as one of failure, where being successful on average just once in three tries will rank you among the elite in the sport, the mantra makes sense. Knowing you, and in turn your teammates are going to fail often, it has to be a psychologically stabilizing force to have faith others will pick up the slack when you aren’t pulling your weight, and you can return the favor later. It helps weather the natural ebb and flow throughout a season.

But it is truly rare for an entirety of a team to fall into the type of icy waters all Cubs hitters slipped into of late. Nobody was coming through. The ship was sinking, but unlike a Titanic-style insufficient number of life boats, on this journey there appeared to be none. No one could find a place of safety where they could reach down and pull another out of the water. It sure seemed like they were out of time to save themselves before they sank into the deep, dark abyss of another playoff failure.

Until last night.

A solo oppo SchwarBomb opened the scoring in the 2nd. It wasn’t much, but it surely had to feel like someone finally discovered some place safe and dry. The homer gave the Cubs an early lead, something they’ve rarely had this month. You still couldn’t feel confident, or even comfortable, really. But when Willson Contreras blasted a three-run shot the next inning, the outpouring of relief was evident: in his expression, in his turn toward his teammates and the shouts which followed, and of course in the epic nature of the bat flip which capped it all off.

The Cubs continued to hit with power. Javy annihilated a pitch he has often missed this season. Victor Caratini even got in on the action with his first homer of the year. But the team also got a couple of clutch hits. Luck was also on their side for the first time in a while. After so many at’em balls over the final two games in Pittsburgh, hard and soft hit balls found holes. It was a complete offensive effort.

Maybe they are still drifting in the middle of a hostile ocean. Or maybe Willson’s blast was a metaphorical call of “Land Ho”. We’ll have to wait and see, but at least for one day, hope has returned.

Injuries, Updates, and Trends

• Magic Number: 1 !!!!!
• With the playoffs fast approaching and Ildemaro Vargas still on the IL, the Cubs need for an extra infielder intensified to the point where they selected the contract of journeyman Patrick Wisdom from South Bend. The Cubs were without an extra infielder on the 40-man roster since Zack Short was dealt at the deadline (the only other position players available were catcher Miguel Amaya and outfielder Albert Almora Jr).
• The still-0-for-as-a-Cub Jose Martinez was optioned back to South Bend to make room on the active roster. Martinez has some experience as a first baseman and outfielder but isn’t a particularly reliable fielder anywhere. Wisdom’s ability to play 3B (even if he isn’t great there) gives the Cubs a little more flexibility.
• To make room on the 40-man IL, prospect Manuel Rodriguez was moved to the 45-day IL. Rodriguez was hurt in ST, and from what I understood he had returned to full health, but given he was never added to the 60-man player pool that information may have been inaccurate. For those wondering why the Cubs had not moved him to the 45-day IL earlier in the season so that they would have the extra roster space to work with, a player on the 45-day IL receives MLB pay, and just as importantly for a prospect, they begin earning MLB service time. The Cubs clearly did not want to make that move, but with depth necessary for the playoffs, and now with so little time in the season, the salary and service time are negligible.