In light of the Case Shiller home price index update on Tuesday it’s a great time to review the Zillow and Pulsenomics 3rd quarter survey of 104 economists and real estate experts which came out last week and provides a home price forecast out through 2024. If you will recall their 2nd quarter survey, which was conducted right in the middle of the first wave of Covid-19, was abysmal, predicting a 0.3% decline in home prices for 2020 and not much of a better forecast for 2021. However, they turned that outlook right around this time and they are now predicting a 3.7% increase in home prices for this year. In fact, their 16.3% cumulative increase over 5 years works out to 3.1% per year compounded.

Terry Loebs, founder of Pulsenomics, explained the change of heart this way:

In contrast to the debate concerning the contours and sustainability of the U.S economic recovery, these survey data reveal a definitive and remarkably sharp V-shape in U.S. home price expectations. In a matter of a few months, the pandemic has turbo-charged what had been relatively limited acceptance of remote work, amplified the value of larger living spaces, and ushered in a new era of monetary accommodation by The Fed. With these fundamental forces stoking demand for homeownership amidst stubborn supply constraints, it’s hard to imagine home price expectations returning to the lows of last quarter any time soon.

The forecast for US home prices is remarkably better than it was in the early days of the Covid 19 pandemic

However, at the same time, the panelists were asked a number of supplemental questions and their outlook for the labor market was not very encouraging. 71% said that unemployment would not return to 3.5% until 2025 or later. It begs the question of whether or not home prices can really continue to advance in such an economic environment. Perhaps the expectation is that unemployment will be concentrated among those who were not likely to buy homes anyway – i.e. lower income renters. I guess that’s possible though I’m a bit worried that sinking boats lowers the tide.

Experts are not that optimistic about the labor market recovery

Chicago Area Home Price Outlook

In order to get a read on where home prices in the Chicago area might be headed I look at the Case Shiller home price futures market. Once again I got the graph below, along with the underlying numbers, from John Dolan of Home Price Futures. It’s pretty ugly and not nearly as optimistic as the Zillow Pulsenomics forecast above. It shows prices declining through March 2021 and then not even totally recovering by the end of 2024. In fact, over that entire period it shows a 1.4% total price decline.

The outlook for Chicago home prices is much less optimistic than what the experts see for the nation

#RealEstate #ChicagoRealEstate #Coronavirus #HomePrices

Gary Lucido is the President of Lucid Realty, the Chicago area’s full service real estate brokerage that offers home buyer rebates and discount commissions. If you want to keep up to date on the Chicago real estate market or get an insider’s view of the seamy underbelly of the real estate industry you can Subscribe to Getting Real by Email using the form below. Please be sure to verify your email address when you receive the verification notice.

Our generation was brought up with The Golden Rule. We didn’t need a metaphysical debate on the fundamental nature of reality and the relationship between mind and matter – it was a simple question of right and wrong, the basic principle of good and bad behavior, “do unto others as you would have others do unto you.”

For the length of my life, the country followed a system of values and principles of conduct that transcended time and culture; morality was universally accepted as ‘fair-mindedness,’ a commonsense conclusion as to behavior that was right and acceptable.
Society agreed, it was wrong to lie and cheat, it was right to lend a helping hand.

While morality itself is not fixed and unchanging, the country’s values seemed to be strong and secure. A divisive elitism undeniably existed, but, social egalitarianism, or what we called democracy, was the goal if not the prevailing ethos.**

The accepted moral standard was the glue that kept our society together. Historically it enabled the country to get through the depression, motivated participation in WWII and set precedent for the peaceful accession to office for 44 presidents, Washington to Obama.
With an accepted benchmark for right versus wrong, there was a track for social advancement, and perhaps most important, a civil process for resolving conflicts of interest in fair and orderly fashion. (the concept was uncomplicated: evaluate the facts and reward the good and punish the guilty as a matter of procedure).

But alas, I say again, morality is not unchanging! Its definition is derived from societal values as of a point in time… and this is the time of Donald Trump… and fake news and “it’s a hoax,” and over 19,000 blatant lies during his time in office.

I strongly doubt if the boorish Trump knows anything about Metaethical Moral Relativism but he sure as hell is practicing it! (Metaethical Moral Relativism: (MMR). The truth or falsity of moral judgments, or their justification, is not absolute or universal, but is relative to the traditions, convictions, or practices of a group of persons.)

“Practices of a group of persons;” the Trump-approved groups such as the Proud Boys – Hitler Youth come to life again – White Supremacists and QAnon conspiracy theorists alleging that a cabal of Satan-worshiping pedophiles is running a global child sex-trafficking ring plotting against President Donald Trump, who is battling them, leading to a “day of reckoning” involving the mass arrest of journalists and politicians.

If a growing segment of the populace adopts a new definition of what is Right and what is Wrong as the standard of our country’s morality, we may be at the beginning of the end of civilized society! If as so many now insist, The Golden Rule is merely propaganda left over from the Obama administration, if in fact our country is no longer able to judge what is morally right and wrong, then my dire warning cannot be ignored.

I’m not an egghead. I struggle with comprehending Absolutism and Universalism and Relativism, but surely morality is more than an abstract concept! C’mon, we know right from wrong!

If the decline of morality as Americans defined it for over a century, continues, our Democracy is in serious danger and life as most of us live it, is imperiled.

Morality, not politics, is on the ballot November 3rd.

** Regretfully, for white America only. This post ignores the systemic racism set firmly in place by the sin of slavery. No reference to the country’s moral fiber can blithely disregard the evocation, Black Lives Matter. I do so in the context of making a point about the Trump administration’s assault on the norms that are the foundation of democracy.

Manisha Holiday grew up on the SouthSide of Chicago. She was raised by a single mother and was only 15 years old when she had her first baby. The biggest challenges for her were providing for her child, juggling school, and growing up too soon. “I wanted to make my mom proud, so I did what I had to do,” says Manisha.

Having a newborn is life-changing for any parent, but being a single mom with a newborn is nerve-wrecking and exhausting. The hardest part of that phase of single motherhood was learning to do ALL of it alone and managing the emotions along the way.

“I read all the books, went to all my doctor appointments, prepared the hospital bag, and created a birth plan by myself, for the most part. I wanted my baby’s father there for the entire birth but it didn’t work out that way.

During labor I felt excitement and disappointment, anticipation and frustration, along with joy and pain. My baby was beautiful. The birth should have been a moment to be celebrated but it was overshadowed by deflated hopes.”

Despite starting a family at such an early age and being a single mom, Manisha finished school and went on to build a life for her three children.

“One promise I made to myself being a teenage mother was to never give up on myself or my children. I had to be a woman before my time, I learned a lot of things along the way. I made a lot of sacrifices and I couldn’t let my family and most of all my mother down who was also a single parent at the time. There were hardship and lot’s of sacrifices, but I provided a good life to my children. In August of 2014, my oldest daughter moved into the college dorm at Northern Illinois University and decided I wanted to start a new life. I gave up everything. I boarded a Greyhound bus with two suitcases and my son who was eight at the time headed for Atlanta, Georgia. My middle child stayed in Chicago with her father to finish her last year of high school. It was time for me to walk in my purpose and put all the horror stories of my life and past behind me. I was ready to give my children everything I wanted as a child and more. The only way for me to do that was to step out in faith, trust my gifts and talent, and use things that I was good at and loved to do. I put it all into creating my own business.”

And the gamble paid off for Manisha. Both of her daughters (a social service professional and a makeup artist) are successful women, and she’s raising her 14-year-old son to be an amazing young man. On top of that, Manisha runs her own public relations firm, The Holiday Firm. Founded in 2015, The Holiday Firm is an award-winning strategic, integrated communications and public relations firm, headquartered in Atlanta, GA, with offices in California and Illinois. Manisha has worked with many entertainers, entrepreneurs, and women in business in Atlanta, Georgia. including Syleena Johnson, Sister Circle, TV One and Lisa Nicole Cloud, “Married to Medicine” Bravo TV while public relations director at ADlanta Magazine. The firm connects brands, messages, and people through data-driven insights, cross-channel communications, and a brilliant customer experience. Find out more by visiting https://theholidayfirm.com. Manisha also is a co-owner of a hemp farm in Georgia and is a co-author of the book “The Protector, The Provider, My Husband, My King… I,ll Wait!”

How you became a single mom does not matter;

it’s what you do with the experience that does.

At 40, Manisha wants to tell her story and share it with others in her new book: Victorious: A Journey to 40. In the book, she details how does a girl who started life with the short end of the stick grow into a woman who is filled with favor? How does a victim of abuse and trauma turn the hopeless situation into victory. Journey with me through the hills and valleys (mostly valleys) of life to discover how the trajectory of my life changed when I changed three things. You will be able to change your life and life story too!

The journey to 40 wasn’t paved in gold but it is filled with golden nuggets that took Manisha from victimhood to living a victorious life! Get inspired. Get uplifted. Get ready to change your story too. Pre-Order Victorious: A Journey to 40 on her website by clicking here!

Reading has always been a part of my life.  I have my father to thank for that.  So when the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown first began in March of this year, I looked forward to two weeks of just reading book after book.  As you are well aware, two weeks turned into six months and counting.

I still have a stack of paperbacks and hardcovers to be read and hundreds of ebooks between two devices loaded and ready, but I did get some books read and I’m happy about that.

I mixed things up a bit.  Here are the books I read and highly recommend for the soul and spirit that I reviewed on CatholicMom.com which you can read at the links below:

Everyday Catholicism Chicken Soup for the Soul

The Inner Chapel by Becky Eldredge

A Year with the Mystics by Kathryn Lopez

Radical Saints, 21 Women for the 21st Century by Melanie Rigney

Dorothy Day:  The World Will be Saved by Beauty by Kate Hennessy

In between these books, I opted for some fiction.  One of my favorite genres is historical fiction and the Henry XVIII era.  One of my favorite authors for those types of books is Alison Weir.  At the end of each of her books, she explains why she wrote the story she did based on her research.  That’s a fascinating read in and of itself!

I read Katherine of Aragon, The True Queen, the first in Alison Weir’s Six Tudor Queens series a few years ago.  I read Anne Boleyn, A King’s Obsession and Katheryn Howard, The Scandalous Queen during the pandemic.

I didn’t read them in order, and I don’t think it’s necessary to do so.  All of them were excellent, in my opinion.  The last, one, Katharine Parr, The Sixth Wife  will be out in May of 2021.

What I find fascinating about these novels is how the Catholic Church was torn apart by one of its most ardent defenders, King Henry XVIII, simply due to his own desperate need for a legitimate heir.

In another lifetime, I read The First Deadly Sin by Lawrence Sanders.  It is an old-fashioned police novel.  In this book, the reader already knows who did it.  It’s just a matter of how the main character, Edward X Delaney will catch the killer.

Which lead me to The Third Deadly Sin (also by Sanders).  Once again it went on sale, so I purchased it.  It’s another great, old-fashioned detective read.  The reader knows who did it, but that didn’t make this book any less suspenseful as the end approached.  I was happy to discover I have the second novel in the four book series.

During the pandemic, I discovered Adam Selzer of Mysterious Chicago on Facebook.  His live “virtual tours” of  current cemeteries and bars no longer in existance made staying in fun again.  He is a prolific author and his H. H. Holmes: The True History of the White City Devil is a detailed account of what Holmes actually did do.

Reading books during the COVID-19 pandemic has kept me happy during this challenging time.  I hope my suggestions add to your happiness also.

Just a quick note: this article contains a couple of affiliate links, which means I get a small percentage of the cost if you decide to purchase through that link.

Please join me and other Catholics (and some not-so-Catholics!) on my Facebook page, Twitter and Instagram.

I also write for Catholic365.com on occasion, and CatholicMom.com every 4th Thursday of the month so take a moment and check them out.

Type your email address in the box and click the “create subscription” button. My list is completely spam free, and you can opt out at any time, but I hope you’ll stick with me!

Ollie the four-year-old yellow parakeet is an active, talkative and fun bird looking for a loving guardian along with his best friend Allie the rescued sparrow.

Allie was found as an abandoned sparrow chick. Her rescuer continued to leave her for her parents to find her, but she was suffering, she brought her inside and bonded her with her parakeet.

When the woman moved in with friends who have cats and dogs that might threaten the birds, the bonded pair was relinquished to Friends of Petraits Rescue to find the family of his dreams.

In their former home, they were allowed out of their cage daily to fly around their apartment.

Parakeets are the smallest of the parrot species and the most common captively kept pet bird. Sparrows are native and typically live in flocks, so Allie and Ollie would probably welcome other parakeets to their flock.

Allie and Ollie are available including their spacious two foot wide, by three foot tall cage with toys, food, treats and perches for $125.

They are currently being fostered in Chicago’s Andersonville neighborhood. To meet and adopt these beautiful birds, please contact [email protected] for an adoption application.

The debate was like a two care pileup of aging vehicles.

I have been conflicted.

Should I post about last Tuesday’s debate between President Trump and Vice-President Biden, or should I let more informed and more politically savvy writers carry the load? Barb was surprised that I didn’t have my two cents in print yesterday, and I am still not sure what I can say today.

Barb and I sat in our comfy chairs Tuesday night, the cat on the ottoman in between, watching our habitual news station, NBC. Not CNBC or MSNBC, just plain old NBC. We watched every minute, absolutely incredulous. We weren’t silent, but we managed to keep our outbursts to a minimum. I hurled out one “Asshole” at Trump’s “Pocahontas” reference, but other than that, I pretty much sat there taking it.

And when the hallucinatory experience was over, when the talking heads at the debate podia were replaced by the shaking, visibly shaken, heads at NBC Studio, I realized that I was drenched in sweat, as soaked as if I had run a 10K rather than sitting in my own home office. My body had responded — in fear, in anger, in frustration, even as my brain tried to process what we had just watched.

I feel like I have been in a humongous gaper’s block. America drives by the accident slowly, turning our collective heads to stare at the two-car wreckage in the other lane; one of the involved drivers calmly talking on his cell phone while the other screams at the highway patrol officer, gesticulating wildly, foam coming from his mouth.

Two days later I don’t feel much better. My Facebook account is filled with “Riden’ with Biden” messages, but I still have a couple of Trump loyalists on my Friends list. I keep them around to see what poison is being posted in the effort to Keep America Great. I no longer respond–what would be the point?–but I fact check their claims, just to make sure I am looking at both sides. And then I realize that for someone with my values, there is only one side.

So get out the tow trucks. Get this wreck off the road. And go out and vote. Because this really matters.

photo credit: george.bremer I’m sensing a theme here… via photopin (license)

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This takes balls. The Associated Press style that most of the press follows, says that a riot is not a riot.

The AP’s “guidance” says, according to Townhall.com

The AP dictates that “unrest” should be used instead of the word “riot” because it’s less “emotional.” The AP then points out how great the words “protest” and “demonstration” are because both words can technically refer to violent and peaceful gatherings alike and help gloss over the violence.

It’s a twisting of a standard definition in order to color an event that’s being covered in a way that favors the political left. The AP, of course, is making this up; “unrest” is not a good description for people setting fire to building and cars.

Fortunately, the dictionary definition of riot isn’t so easily corrupted:

1a: a violent public disorderspecifically : a tumultuous disturbance of the public peace by three or more persons assembled together and acting with a common intent

b: public violence, tumult, or disorder

2: a random or disorderly profusion; the woods were a riot of color

3: one that is wildly amusing;  the new comedy is a riot

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House Speaker Mike Madigan

Hey everyone’s innocent until found guilty, right? House Speaker Michael Madigan hasn’t been charged with anything and he maintains his innocence, right?

Even though he showed up in an indictment as official  “A” in the ComEd bribery scandal.

As the Cook County Record explains:

Federal prosecutors have placed powerful Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan at the heart of a wide-ranging bribery scheme allegedly perpetrated by electrical utility ComEd.

However, that has not stopped political donors from pouring money into Madigan’s war chests. The Speaker, who also serves as chairman of the Illinois Democratic Party, then uses that money in large part to fund Democratic political campaigns and operations statewide.

A large chunk of Madigan’s campaign cash has continued to come from personal injury lawyers and other trial law groups whose money largely comes from businesses they sue in courts in Cook County, Madison County and elsewhere….

According to campaign finance records posted on Sept. 24, trial lawyers collectively donated $161,000 to the Friends of Michael J. Madigan, with all donations dated Sept. 21.

The who and how much are in the linked story.

And the beat goes on.