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Numbers add up for White Sox, no matter what a computer sayson March 28, 2021 at 1:00 pm

On one side, we have the lofty, jubilant, probably a bit over-the-skis notion that the White Sox will be a World Series team in 2021. On the other, we have that mean, old PECOTA, a heartless algorithm that predicts the Sox will go 83.1-78.9 this season and finish third in the American League Central.

The true believers over here, wafting through life on a buzz strong enough to last through October and the accompanying championship parade.

PECOTA over there, not knowing its butt from its elbow, possibly because it has neither.

So which is it?

The safe bet would be somewhere in the middle, maybe 87 victories and a second consecutive wild-card berth. But that’s like ordering a peanut butter-and-jelly sandwich. There’s no risk and not much of an epicurean reward.

If we’re dealing in possibility — and what else is the beginning of a baseball season but hope and possibility? — these Sox remind me of the 2015 Cubs. I know there are Sox fans who hate whenever their team is mentioned in the context of the crosstown rival Cubs, but bear with me. It’s an excellent context with which to be associated. Those Cubs surprised everybody by going 97-65 and making it to the National League Championship Series. The Mets swept them, but the Cubs’ young core learned valuable lessons, which they used to win the World Series the next season.

That’s how this Sox team feels right now . . . poised to be really, really good but not quite sure yet how to take full advantage of their talent. The only way to get experience is to get experience. It’s a pitch-and-Catch-22.

I’m not saying the Sox are a 97-victory team the way the Cubs ended up being in 2015, though it’s worth noting that exactly nobody predicted the North Siders would win that many games before the season began. But I am saying that the Sox seem to be in mid-progression here, and how high they end up this season depends on your level of belief right now. Mine is about as high as a Luis Robert home run.

If you Sox fans refuse to use the Cubs as a comparison, look to the Bulls of the late 1980s for inspiration. They twice lost in the Eastern Conference finals to the Pistons before finally pushing through and winning their first NBA title in 1991. Better? I thought you’d think so.

The Sox don’t have a Michael Jordan, of course, but they do have an excellent collection of young talent that, together, should be formidable. It doesn’t take hallucinogens to see them in the ALCS or beyond this season. The doubters will say that the Twins are going to be very good again this season, and they’ll get no argument here. But the additions that Sox general manager Rick Hahn made during the offseason — starter Lance Lynn and closer Liam Hendriks — should help the club, which finished a game behind the Twins last season.

I keep looking at the Sox’ roster and see an energy, a force. Jose Abreu. Tim Anderson. Robert. Eloy Jimenez. Lucas Giolito. Dallas Keuchel. Yasmani Grandal. Nick Madrigal.

When you have that many players with ability, it doesn’t make a team slump-proof, but it should, in theory, take away the long losing streaks that make clubs question the meaning of life — and not in a good way. It certainly will help when injuries arrive, and they will.

PECOTA is Baseball Prospectus’ analytical system of predicting performance. When spitting out its so-so prediction for the Sox, it obviously is leaving plenty of room for a drop-off from some of the young players who performed well in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. But what about the possibility of 25-year-old pitcher Dylan Cease taking a big leap in his third season? Or Yoan Moncada bouncing back in a big way from a tough season in which he hit .225 and had only six homers?

While we’re on the subject of PECOTA, what kind of thing predicts a record of 83.1-78.9? Not a human. Not a sports fan.

New manager Tony La Russa is one of the wild cards for the Sox. No one knows how the 76-year-old will relate to the players or how they’ll react to him. In some ways, he’s about as old-school as Oxford. No one knows what his effect will be on the Sox’ victory total in 2021, but baseball fans know he has won three World Series as an innovative manager.

Maybe an algorithm is equipped to know all the answers. For those of us with flesh and blood and a hunch, we’ll just have to wait and see.But I’m predicting 92 victories for the Sox. Maybe even 92.3.

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Numbers add up for White Sox, no matter what a computer sayson March 28, 2021 at 1:00 pm Read More »

Cubs’ dynasty dreams are a fading memoryon March 28, 2021 at 1:00 pm

I’ve got a grandson who had his ninth birthday last month. I asked him at his little party whether he remembered the Cubs’ 2016 World Series title.

I didn’t mean reports of it or videos. The event itself, in real time.

“Not really,” he said.

Now, this kid’s a huge sports fan, been playing baseball since I turned him into a left-handed hitter at age 2. (Thank you, Pops!)

He loves the Cubs, even loves the Indians, the Cubs’ foe in the 2016 Series, because his dad’s side of the sports-mad family is from the Cleveland area.

My point is, if this focused 9-year-old has no real memory of the Cubs’ last championship since 1908 because he was too young, then nobody does who is under age 10.

Time moves.

The Cubs are now four-plus years into their second World Series drought since 1908.

Are they building toward another crown or idly turning the pages of a fresh and endless calendar?

Is there a whole new populace of fans (my grandson leading the way) who will go through the torment of never seeing (and remembering) a championship Cubs team in their lifetimes?

I only ask these questions because nobody should have to reprise Cubs fans’ misery for most of the 20th century into the 21st. And if they must suffer, let’s start now with the therapy.

Things sure haven’t gone as expected for the Cubs after that 2016 title. The hope that the team was a dynasty in the making — or at least a contender for the crown for years — was shot down after the Cubs went 4-9 in three postseason appearances since 2016.

Maybe it’s just the playoffs that are the problem because the Cubs have been above .500 in each of the last four seasons and finished first in the National League Central in 2017 and last season.

But if you’re not built for playoff success, what are you built for? That’s another question. And I hate to ask it.

Because maybe the Cubs now are built just to tread water. Maybe we saw the rise and pinnacle and are on the slow bicycle ride down to average or worse. And another generation can prepare to eat dust for years.

Biggest change? Chief engineer and former team president Theo Epstein is gone for the first time in a decade. Trusty sidekick Jed Hoyer is now at the wheel, but Hoyer might have had his fuel tank (read: money from the Ricketts ownership) half-emptied.

Gone are longtime pitching-staff leader Jon Lester (to the Nationals) and last season’s best starter, Yu Darvish (Padres). Also not around is a star finisher like the Cubs had in 2016, a guy such as controversial rent-a-bazooka Aroldis Chapman.

The Cubs’ staff might have some skilled technicians in pitchers such as Kyle Hendricks and Zach Davies, but they’re definitely short of fireballers. And no matter what managers say about the value of technique, speed still kills.

New man Davies is worth noting here because he is listed as 6 feet and all of 155 pounds. If he threw faster than 90 mph, it would be like getting a bullet out of a soda straw. (Fun tidbit: Recently retired pitcher Bartolo Colon, whose fastball occasionally touched 100 mph for many a club, was an inch shorter and weighed 130 pounds more than Davies.)

At any rate, we shouldn’t lay all Cubs uncertainty at the feet (arms) of the pitchers. Outfielder/perpetual-DH-in-training Kyle Schwarber — same height, 70 pounds heavier than Davies — is gone (to the Nationals), but pretty much the rest of the Cubs’ offensive guns from the World Series season are intact. Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javy Baez, Willson Contreras, Jason Heyward — they’re all in place, but nobody can say for sure if they’re as good as they once were.

All except Heyward had weak seasons during the 60-game COVID mayhem in 2020. If they get it straight this season, those hitters could help the Cubs beat division foes such as the Cardinals, who will pay five-time All-Star third baseman Nolan Arenado about $150 million to help trample the Cubs.

If none of this works out, and quickly, you might guess the Cubs will be dumping high-priced veterans very soon. Actually, you can count on it.

And if you were, say, second-year manager ”Dancin’ David” Ross, you might wish you had started your skipper’s waltz elsewhere.

And if you’re a fan?

You’re rosy and hopeful by nature, of course. And you’ve seen it all before.

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Cubs’ dynasty dreams are a fading memoryon March 28, 2021 at 1:00 pm Read More »

All eyes are on Anthony Rizzo in possibly his last year as a Cubon March 28, 2021 at 1:00 pm

So much was wrong with the Cubs on July 10, 2014.

They were 14 games under .500, losers of six in a row and trying to avoid being swept in the fifth and final game of a miserable series in Cincinnati. They bore the hopeless stench of sellers, too, having just traded away starting pitchers Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel and their sub-3.00 ERAs. They might as well have been wearing “Kick me” signs on their backs instead of names and numbers.

Not that every last thing was terrible. For one, a modestly regarded pitcher by the name of Kyle Hendricks threw six innings that day in his major-league debut, and who knew where that might lead him? For another, 24-year-old first baseman Anthony Rizzo would learn — after a 12-inning victory — that he had made his first All-Star roster.

But in the ninth inning, Reds closer Aroldis Chapman toyed with the Cubs, terrorizing batter Nate Schierholtz with dangerous fastballs up and in and chirping at the visitors’ dugout after an inning-ending strikeout.

The Reds’ chatter continued as Rizzo warmed up his fellow infielders before the bottom of the frame, and that’s when he snapped. He walked toward the home dugout, threw down his glove and dared them to come out, which, of course, they all did.

If there was a moment when Rizzo became a leader of the Cubs, that was it.

“It was very meaningful,” said then-outfielder Chris Coghlan, “because back then we just got kicked around a lot. We were just kind of nice guys who maybe — who knows? — were going to be good in a couple of years. That was the reputation we had with other teams.

“What Rizz did that day was stand up as a leader — which you don’t often see from guys with superstar skill sets — and let it be known that things were changing right now.”

Driving home in his rented BMW from the Cubs’ spring-training facility in Mesa, Arizona, on the next-to-last day of February, Rizzo, now 31, reflected on a day that seemed like ages ago.

“I was just standing up for my guys, my teammates,” he said. “To this day, it’s what matters most in this game. You hear so many baseball legends and guys who only played for a few years talking all about, ‘How was this guy as a teammate?’ Not, ‘Wow, he had a really good swing,’ or, ‘He could throw the slider down and away whenever he wanted.’ When you get back with the guys out of the game now, it’s all talk about how guys were as teammates. That’s how you want to be known.”

Isn’t 2021 the perfect opportunity, then, for Rizzo to do it again? To stand up for a team that — let’s face it — is widely considered to have seen better days? A lot of people out there are taking the Cubs more lightly than they have since at least the first half of 2015, but, hey, what the hell do they know, anyway?

It kind of feels as though if the guy teammate Jason Heyward calls “Superman” won’t throw down the gauntlet, it won’t even matter if anyone else does.

So, Rizzo?

“No,” he said.

Come again?

“There are reasons to have doubt, in my opinion. We haven’t played to our potential, and we’ve had early exits the last few years. I don’t think we’ve won a playoff game.”

That’s true — not since the 2017 National League Championship Series loss to the Dodgers.

“But we have a lot to prove, and that’s good,” he said. “It’s a good feeling. We have a lot to prove climbing the mountain. We don’t feel like we’re on top of that now and we can’t get any higher, and it’s a good feeling when you start climbing the mountain again. Being positive is great, but there’s a lot of work and a lot of the basics that you have to get back to to be a great team.”

Rizzo isn’t spoiling for a fight. He just wants to get after it on the field and have some fun. On a team with many key players in free-agent walk years — Kris Bryant and Javy Baez, newcomers Joc Pederson, Jake Arrieta and Zach Davies, plus Rizzo, too — fun might be just what the doctor ordered.

A FEW DAYS BEFORE LEAVING for the desert, Rizzo attended a nephew’s T-ball practice in Florida. Try to imagine such a star taking in that kind of nascent baseball scene. Something about it hit Rizzo like a ton of fluffy, delightful bricks, and he walked away from the field smiling.

“It’s just the perspective of what we get to do for a living, you know?” he said. “It’s so easy to get wrapped up in the business, and I’m guilty of it, you know what I mean? I want to make as much money as I can, be paid for my value as much as I can, more than anyone. But that’s the business side of it.”

At bat, Rizzo crowds the plate and dares pitchers to hit him. In the field, he charges toward the batter’s box with abandon on expected bunts, putting himself at unimaginable risk. Sounds fun, right? But it is, which to him is the whole point. And sometimes it all just has away of bringing that smile to his face that Cubs fans never tire of seeing.

“The easiest part is playing,” he said. “You put in all this work, train in the offseason, spring training, at-bats every day, cage work, and then you get on the field and it’s time to shine. It sounds so simple to put it that way, but that’s what we’re doing.

“When you start taking it too seriously, when it starts to get out of hand and you stop having fun, that’s when, for me, it gets too much. I like to have fun and laugh and make everybody happy. When it’s time to work, it’s time to work. But it’s a game that we’ve played forever, and that’s what you’ve got to keep as much as you can. That is the joy of the game, playing it like a little kid.”

Cubs general manager Jed Hoyer anticipates challenges with the players in walk years — “dealing with guys and their anxieties, things like that,” he puts it — and that’s probably wise. It’s high on the list of loose ends for manager David Ross to attempt to wrangle, up there with hitters’ overall decision-making at the plate, which Hoyer says has “degraded over the past three or four years,” and the team’s inability to find offensive success against hard-throwing pitchers.

The size and scope of the walk-year situation is unlike anything predecessor Joe Maddon had to contend with.

“It’s on my radar,” Ross said. “It’s definitely something I’ve talked about. But I really value the quality of the human being we have in that locker room, and the guys are going to go through that. Surely, it’s on everybody’s mind.”

It definitely was on Rizzo’s mind in the months before he left for Mesa. That’s in part a result of the goodbyes he has been forced to say to some people he loved: Maddon, Jon Lester, Kyle Schwarber. But the uncertainty of his own future never really unsettled Rizzo. Quite the opposite.

“It’s a great feeling,” he said, “because you worked hard to get to free agency and you’re one year away, and it’s just, ‘Let’s go play and have fun.’ Go out and play and just be Anthony Rizzo, be Kris Bryant, be Javy Baez. Don’t be anyone else. We’re all confident that, by the end, it’ll all speak for itself.”

And if this is the last dance for Rizzo with the Cubs?

“Obviously, this time next year, I could be wearing a totally different uniform,” he said. “But when that time comes, I know I’ll have zero regrets with my time here, and I’ll have so many friendships that will last forever. Some of my best friends live in Chicago and have nothing to do with the Chicago Cubs, that I just met from being in Chicago. I’ll see their kids be raised. We’ll still hang out. And all the interactions in the city? Man.

“There’s still so much to focus on this year. That’s the baseball mentality: next day, next pitch, where you have to be, when you haveto do it. But when that time comes? I’m sure it’ll be emotional because that’s how I am.”

THIS, YOU WILL NOT BELIEVE: Rizzo has never watched a full recording of the Cubs’ celebration in Cleveland after winning the World Series in 2016. He remembers certain details, such as hugging Bryant near the mound — “just two innocent kids just loving the game like nothing else mattered,” he recalled — but he hasn’t seen and re-seen (and then seen again) the videos like so many of us have.

“I mean, I lived it,” he said. “I lived it, and I know I had a great time in the moment. What a great gift, something you’ll never, ever, ever, ever forget. Ever. You’ll tell stories forever about it because of how special it was.”

By this point, does discussing 2016 feel a bit like living in the past? Has he tired at all of the subject?

“No, I don’t get tired of it,” he said. “It was the greatest year of my life.”

What he wouldn’t give to have another one like it, to bring another championship to the North Side, to shed joyful tears at another parade. Many in Chicago and throughout baseball thought the title of five years ago wouldn’t — and shouldn’t — be the last one claimed by Rizzo and company. The goal of following up with No. 2 hasn’t disappeared, but it sure seems more distant these days.

Working out at a gym not long after the Cubs’ curse-busting triumph, Rizzo was approached by an older fellow — a New England Patriots fan.

“Congratulations,” the man said. “But you haven’t done [expletive] until the whole country hates you. That’s when you know you’re really good.”

In other words, it takes more than one. How surprised is Rizzo that it didn’t — or hasn’t yet — happened again?

“First off, it’s not done,” he said. “It could still happen.

“But I’m not shocked. You’re giving your all. There’s really no regrets. The other team is better than us. It’s unfortunate, but we always did everything we could. When you look back and say, ‘Oh, we should have won more,’ no. We put everything we had into it. It’s not like there was anyone ever taking a day off of anything. And when you do that, you just let it all play out.”

And if the Cubs haven’t managed to make the whole country hate them, they’ve at least turned their own fans a little salty. “Wait till next year” left the building when Bryant threw that ball to Rizzo for the final out of Game 7, and it’s never coming back.

“We’ve turned a franchise that was all about losing to expectations of, like, really winning,” Rizzo said. “I know it was always, ‘Wait till next year,’ but that kind of was a laughingstock. We turned that into, ‘We expect you to win, and if you don’t, we’re very pissed off at our team,’ which is something that you want. We have flipped a fan base, and that’s awesome. That’s amazing.”

Before the Cubs took on the Mets — and were swept in four games — in the 2015 NLCS, Rizzo had a great feeling.

“I was absolutely convinced we were winning the World Series,” he said. “I would’ve put my life savings on it because that’s how good that team was.”

He had a similar feeling heading into the 2020 playoffs, even though he, Baez, Bryant and others had struggled during a 60-game regular season to hit. Maybe it was the closeness players shared after months inside a pandemic bubble where breaking health-and-safety protocols and testing positive for COVID-19 were lines no one — and no other big-league team could say this — crossed.

That’s it. That’s exactly what it was.

“We were just so committed to each other,” Rizzo said.

And so when they didn’t win — after the Marlins finished them off in two wild-card games at Wrigley Field — Rizzo found himself not wanting to leave the ballpark, not wanting it all to be over. One player after another met the media on Zoom, already showered and dressed to hit the road. Last to come on was Rizzo, still wearing his blue Cubs undershirt and cap.

“Just numb,” he said then. “This just sucks.”

It did suck. You know what else will? Heck, maybe nothing. Maybe it’llall be too fun. Maybe it’ll all be great. Or maybe it won’t.

“Either way,” Rizzo said after putting the BMW in park and cutting the engine, “I’m really happy to be here.”

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All eyes are on Anthony Rizzo in possibly his last year as a Cubon March 28, 2021 at 1:00 pm Read More »

20 shot, 1 fatally, in Chicago so far this weekendon March 28, 2021 at 11:04 am

A man was killed and 19 others have been wounded in shootings across Chicago so far this weekend.

A 36-year-old man was fatally shot Saturday in Pullman on the South Side.

About 11:40 p.m., he was sitting in a parked vehicle in the 700 block of East 103rd Street when three male suspects approached him and one of the males fired shots, Chicago police said.

The man suffered gunshot wounds in the chest, arm and buttocks, police said. He was taken to the University of Chicago Medical Center, where he was pronounced dead.

The Cook County medical examiner’s office hasn’t released details on his death.

In nonfatal shootings, a 48-year-old man was shot in an attempted robbery early Sunday in Roseland on the Far South Side.

He was standing outside about 12:40 a.m. in the 10500 block of South Michigan Avenue when a person approached him and demanded his money, Chicago police said. The man refused and reached for the armed suspect’s handgun, according to police.

The gunman fired a shot and struck the man in the knee before fleeing the scene, police said. The man self-transported to Roseland Hospital in good condition.

A 31-year-old man was shot while riding in a funeral procession Saturday in Gresham on the South Side.

He was riding in a vehicle about 6:50 p.m. when someone fired shots as the procession passed through the 7600 block of South Ashland Avenue, Chicago police said. He was struck in the abdomen and arm, and rushed to the University of Chicago Medical Center in critical condition, police said.

A teenage bystander was wounded in a shooting Saturday afternoon East Garfield Park on the West Side.

The 17-year-old boy was walking about 4:30 p.m. in the 3300 block of West Ohio Street when someone in a vehicle drove by and fired shots at a nearby group of people, Chicago police said. Someone in the group returned fire, and the boy was caught in the crossfire, taking a bullet to the chest.

He was brought to Mt. Sinai Hospital in good condition, police said.

Hours earlier, four people were wounded, two critically, in Austin on the West Side.

The group was standing outside about 12:10 p.m. when someone fired shots at them in the 500 block of North Leamington Avenue, Chicago police said.

One man, 64, was struck in the leg, and another, 54, was struck in the thigh, police said. Both were taken to Mt. Sinai Hospital in critical condition. A third man, 42, was grazed on the back and treated at the scene.

A fourth victim later showed up at Loyola University Medical Center in Maywood with a gunshot wound to the shoulder, and was listed in good condition, police said.

Early Saturday morning, a man was critically wounded in a shooting in the South Shore neighborhood.

The 21-year-old was standing outside about 1:45 a.m. in the 7000 block of South Jeffery Boulevard when he heard shots and felt pain, police said. He suffered one gunshot wound to the groin and was transported to the University of Chicago Medical Center in critical condition.

Less than an hour earlier, a 25-year-old man was shot in Bronzeville on the South Side.

He was walking outside about 12:50 a.m. in the 800 block of East Oakwood Boulevard when a black sedan pulled up alongside him with three people inside, police said. One of the people inside the sedan began shooting and struck him in the hand. He was transported to Mercy Hospital, where his condition was stabilized.

Another 25-year old was hurt in a drive-by shooting about the same time in Oakland on the South Side.

About 12:50 a.m., the man was sitting in a parked vehicle in the 3800 block of South Langley Avenue when a white Jeep drove by him and began firing shots, Chicago police said. He was shot in the leg and was taken to the University of Chicago Medical Center where his condition was stabilized.

Just after midnight, a 56-year-old man was wounded in a shooting in South Shore.

He was exiting his vehicle about 12:10 a.m. in the 7200 block of South Coles Avenue when a person approached him and fired shots before fleeing the scene, police said. The man was shot in the stomach and was taken to the University of Chicago Medical Center in good condition, police said.

In the weekend’s earliest reported shooting, a man was shot Friday evening in East Garfield Park on the West Side.

The man, 22, heard shots and felt pain about 6:55 p.m. in the 3300 block of West Ohio Street, Chicago police said. He was taken to Stroger Hospital with a gunshot wound to his buttocks and was listed in fair condition.

At least seven other people have been wounded in citywide shootings since 5 p.m. Friday.

Twenty people were shot, four fatally, last weekend in Chicago.

Read more on crime, and track the city’s homicides.

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20 shot, 1 fatally, in Chicago so far this weekendon March 28, 2021 at 11:04 am Read More »

Chicago Bulls: What changed in their first game after the deadline?on March 28, 2021 at 11:00 am

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Chicago Bulls: What changed in their first game after the deadline?on March 28, 2021 at 11:00 am Read More »

Man shot in Roseland attempted robberyon March 28, 2021 at 7:25 am

A 48-year-old man was shot in an attempted robbery early Sunday in Roseland on the Far South Side.

He was standing outside about 12:40 a.m. in the 10500 block of South Michigan Avenue when a person approached him and demanded his money, Chicago police said.

The man refused and reached for the armed suspect’s handgun, according to police.

The gunman fired a shot and struck the man in the knee before fleeing the scene, police said.

The man self-transported to Roseland Hospital in good condition, police said.

No one is in custody as Area Two detectives investigate.

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Man shot in Roseland attempted robberyon March 28, 2021 at 7:25 am Read More »

Man killed in Pullman shootingon March 28, 2021 at 6:08 am

A 36-year-old man was fatally shot Saturday in Pullman on the South Side.

About 11:40 p.m., he was sitting in a parked vehicle in the 700 block of East 103rd Street when three male suspects apprached him and one of the males fired shots, Chicago police said.

The man suffered gunshot wounds in the chest, arm and buttocks, police said. He was taken to the University of Chicago Medical Center, where he was pronounced dead.

The Cook County medical examiner’s office hasn’t released details on his death.

No one is in custody as Area Two detectives investigate.

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Man killed in Pullman shootingon March 28, 2021 at 6:08 am Read More »

What Kids from a Different Culture Can Teach You About LOVEon March 28, 2021 at 6:02 am

Go Do Good!

What Kids from a Different Culture Can Teach You About LOVE

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What Kids from a Different Culture Can Teach You About LOVEon March 28, 2021 at 6:02 am Read More »

Chicago Week in Beer, March 28-April 1on March 28, 2021 at 5:16 am

The Beeronaut

Chicago Week in Beer, March 28-April 1

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Chicago Week in Beer, March 28-April 1on March 28, 2021 at 5:16 am Read More »

3 things we learned: SIU playoff hopes dealt damaging blow with last-second losson March 27, 2021 at 11:41 pm

Prairie State Pigskin

3 things we learned: SIU playoff hopes dealt damaging blow with last-second loss

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3 things we learned: SIU playoff hopes dealt damaging blow with last-second losson March 27, 2021 at 11:41 pm Read More »