FiveThirtyEight model has QB Justin Fields ranked below Bears backup

Justin Fields looks to redeem himself this season

Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields struggled as a rookie. He wasn’t the only quarterback to struggle in Matt Nagy’s offense with the Bears. Fields is expected to improve this season in a new scheme with offensive coordinator Luke Getsy.

Fields will have challenges with a weak wide receivers corps and a suspect offensive line. Fields must use his athleticism to keep the ball alive and make plays in the passing game or on the run. He did that well in the preseason.

One prediction model isn’t sold on Fields getting much better this season. FiveThirtyEight recently released its predictions for the 2022 NFL season at the quarterback position. The model uses “Elo” points to rank quarterbacks:

The top quarterbacks for each team and their value in Elo points, which are used in our quarterback-adjusted model. Our ratings are a rolling average of recent performances and incorporate both passing and running. Initial rookie ratings are based on draft position; undrafted rookies begin their careers with an Elo value of zero, while a first overall draft pick starts with an Elo value of 113.

If that reads like gibberish to you, where it ranks Fields will make sense.

Fields ranks low on the model

Bears backup quarterback Trevor Siemian is ranked higher than Fields by seven Elo points. Justin Fields is also well behind former Bears quarterback and Pittsburgh Steelers captain Mitch Trubisky. Here’s a list of the rankings.

Here are this year’s official 538 QB ratings.

Thoughts?https://t.co/tGA40G6IWn https://t.co/DqKR1uNbxg pic.twitter.com/FGRfOgUu9s

— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) September 7, 2022

FiveThirtyEight has a flawed model

Justin Fields is not the 43rd-best quarterback in the NFL. It’s a ridiculous list that sees Colt McCoy over Carson Wentz. It’s not too surprising, coming from a property of Nate Silver that failed so poorly in the 2016 presidential election. Fields doesn’t even have to have a good season to beat this prediction.

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