The Chicago Cubs once-thriving offense has sputtered to nearly a complete stop. Early this season, the Cubs found success with a strong lineup and an elite bullpen staff. From the start of the season until the end of May, the Cubs had a top-10 offense in terms of wRC+ and the second-best bullpen ERA of any team.
Those good times now feel like eons ago. After suffering through an embarrassing sweep in Milwaukee, the Cubs’ playoff hopes seem slim.
The beginning of the team’s decline can be pinpointed to late May when Matt Duffy and Nico Hoerner – two of the team’s best contact bats – were both lost to injuries within just a couple of days of each other.
The Chicago Cubs offense has been one of the worst in MLB over the past five weeks.
Duffy last appeared in a game for the Cubs on May 22 before he suffered a back strain that landed him on the injured list. Before his injury, Duffy had been a surprise difference-maker for the Cubs, slashing .278/.377/.356. Although his game lacks power, his bat-to-ball skills made him a key contributor in the heart of the lineup.
Similarly, Hoerner’s season was off to a strong start. He made the Cubs’ front office look foolish for starting him in the minors, hitting a scorching .338/.405/.432 in his brief time with the big league club. Hoerner last played on May 25 when a strained hamstring forced him onto the Injured List just three days after Duffy suffered his injury.
Two players getting hurt so close together is nothing notable for a lot of teams, but in this case, it became a huge deal. The Cubs have a lineup built around players that have a large amount of swing-and-miss in their batting profile, so players that don’t have that problem (like Duffy and Hoerner) can be even more important.
Of all Cubs players with more than 30 plate appearances this year, Hoerner and Duffy have the first and the third-lowest strikeout rates along with the fifth and seventh-highest walk rates, respectively.
What happens when you take those vital skills out of the Cubs’ lineup? Disaster. Prior to Duffy’s injury on May 22nd, as a team, the Cubs were hitting .242/.326/.413, had a 103 wRC+, a strikeout rate of 25.5 percent, and a walk rate of 9.5 percent.
Since Duffy’s injury, those numbers have gotten much worse. Since May 22nd the team is hitting .199/.275/.373, have a 79 wRC+, a strikeout rate of 28.1 percent, and a walk rate of 8.3 percent. That batting average, on-base percentage, and strikeout rate are all the worst of any team over that period.
Hoerner may be activated from the Injured List for this weekend’s series against the Reds but that help may be too little, too late. After a disastrous stretch, the Cubs are sitting six games out of first place at the start of July. It’s no secret that this is a make-or-break year in Wrigleyville and the front office may have already seen enough to be sellers at the quickly approaching trade deadline.
