The Chicago Cubs should avoid these three players with the 16th overall pick.
No matter how much due diligence or research goes into a potential draft prospect, busts are going to happen. For whatever reason, failing to materialize, lack of ambition, off-the-field issues, it’s unavoidable. The Chicago Cubs have missed on several first-round picks through the years. Josh Vitters and Tyler Colvin immediately come to mind as big-time draft prospects that simply didn’t pan out.
In the upcoming draft, the Cubs hold the 16th overall pick. With the draft being shortened to just five rounds due to the coronavirus pandemic canceling high school and collegiate baseball seasons, Theo Epstein and company need to get every pick right.
Let’s look at three players to stay away from in the first round.
Garrett Crochet, LHP, Tennessee
Aside from scouts viewing Crochet as an eventual bullpen arm, he wasn’t particularly good against SEC competition during his time at Tennessee. As a true freshman, the lefty made 17 appearances – including six starts – and struck out 62 batters in 63.2 innings. However, he allowed a .267 batting average while spinning a 5.51 ERA. Flash forward to 2019, and he was utilized in a similar fashion, 18 appearances – including six starts – allowing a .268 average and 4.02 ERA.
He was limited by an injury to start the 2020 season, so he made just one start before the shutdown. However, a closer look at his game logs from 2019 reveals he rarely went deep in games when starting. Crochet’s longest start was against Kentucky, going 6.2 innings and striking out eight batters. Great, right? The next three games were against Arkansas, Missouri, and Florida, and he tossed a combined 16.1 innings while allowing 16 earned runs.
Outside the division, Crochet struck out nine batters in back-to-back appearances against Appalachian State and Indiana. I am not convinced he will transition into a starting rotation at the next level, and the Cubs already went heavy on relievers last year.
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Carmen Mlodzinkski, RHP, South Carolina
Mlodzinkski may end up slipping to the second round, so that’s reason enough to pass on him with the 16th overall pick. Add to that that his numbers at South Carolina were not overly impressive. As a freshman, he made 19 appearances – including seven starts – striking out 43 batters in 45.2 innings. But he also walked 21 batters and allowed a .278 average while spinning a 5.52 ERA.
The following year, he transitioned in the starting rotation for the Gamecocks, making three starts but still demonstrated the inability to command the strike zone before breaking his foot. His season was ended prematurely, but in the three starts he made, he struck out 11 batters while also walking 11 and allowing a .289 average and a 5.91 ERA.
Mlodzinkski was off to a better start this year before the shutdown. He made four starts and struck out 25.1 innings. However, some of the same issues resurfaced, walking eight batters and allowing a .258 average. Along with his command issues, there’s not enough of a sample size for me to feel comfortable with the Cubs taking him in the first round.
Any of the catchers
I’ve seen several mock drafts with the Cubs utilizing their first-round pick on a catcher. There’s no denying that this catcher class is extremely deep. Once Patrick Bailey is off the board, that leaves a whole slew of top-tier talent still on the board in the first round. Tyler Soderstrom has been linked to the Cubs in recent mocks. Arizona’s Austin Wells and Ohio State’s Dillon Dingler also figure to be first-round picks.
