While the odds are not favorable, if the Chicago Blackhawks landed the number one overall pick, the results would be franchise-changing.
Alexis Lafreniere is the consensus number one pick in the upcoming NHL Entry Draft. He is, in every way, the next great talent to enter the National Hockey League. This past season, he tallied 35 goals with 77 assists for 112 points and a +41 plus-minus rating playing for Rimouski Oceanic of the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League. And the Chicago Blackhawks have a chance to land him.
Sure, the odds are not favorable by any means. In fact, with just a five percent chance to land the top pick in the draft, they’d probably have better odds playing the PowerBall right now. All joking aside, while still not great, the Blackhawks have a 16.0 percent chance to luck into a top-three pick.
A year ago, the Hawks had a 2.5 percent chance at the top pick, and they ended up with the number three overall pick, taking Kirby Dach, who scored eight goals with 15 assists for 23 total points in 64 games in his rookie year.
What would it mean for the Chicago Blackhawks to win the No. 1 pick and a chance to draft Alexis Lafreniere?
Landing the top draft pick would be the equivalent of the Chicago Bulls grabbing Derrick Rose number one overall in 2008, despite having a 1.7 percent chance to do so. Lafreniere is the most NHL-ready player in this draft. He is an excellent skater. His vision is off the charts. He’s the quarterback on the ice, leading rushes down the ice while having a keen sense of where everyone is. His timing is impeccable; fitting passes between tightly-knit windows. He’d be an immediate plug-in along the third or fourth line of the Blackhawks, thus bolstering their offense from their top two lines.
[embedded content]What would winning a top-three pick mean for the Chicago Blackhawks?
Missing out on Lafreniere is not the end of the world. This class is loaded with NHL talent, and grabbing Quinton Byfield in the top three is the next best thing. The Newmarket, ON native turns 18 in August and is a left-handed centerman. He’s spent the last two years playing for the Sudbury Wolves in the OHL, tallying 32 goals with 50 assists for 82 points and +26 plus-minus rating in 45 games.
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The Blackhawks have an immense amount of talent at center on their roster, but Byfield would fit well on the fourth line to start, working his way up to the top line. They could potentially find salary relief by trading Andrew Shaw, again, who carries a cap hit of $3.9M through the 2021-2022 season.
Byfield is widely viewed to be the second-best pick in this draft, so if the Blackhawks land the number three pick again, they can go with Lucas Raymond. The 18-year-old is from Goteborg, Sweden, and can play both winger positions. He’s one of the faster forwards in this class. Raymond tallied four goals with six assists for ten points this past season for Frolunda HC of the SHL.
What if the Chicago Blackhawks pick outside the top three?
If the Blackhawks end up on the outside looking in of the top three draft picks, then it starts to become a bit unclear who the top choice is. Do they draft based on need or take the best overall player on the board? Cole Perfetti, who we have discussed before, is a talented winger who can score in bunches. Might they grab Corey Crawford‘s replacement in Yaroslav Askarov? He’s considered to be on the best goalie prospects in quite some time.
Regardless if they go with other players like Tim Stutzle, Marco Rossi, Jamie Drysdale, or Jake Sanderson, the Blackhawks will be adding to an already talented farm system. Ideally, outside of the top three picks, the preferred option would be a defenseman to shore up the issues at the blue line.
Drysdale would be that guy for me, one who can change the dynamic of the power play while still providing sound defense.
