I just covered the most recent Case Shiller home price indices release that tells you were home prices have been going so now is a good time to give you an idea of where home prices are believed to be heading. A couple of weeks ago Zillow and Pulsenomics conducted their Q1 2022 Home Price Expectations Survey of 109 housing market experts. Since 2020 drops off their radar for the first quarter survey, I calculated that their forecast for 2022 home price appreciation was 6.5% last quarter but it’s now 9.0% in this quarter’s survey. Their 5 year outlook went from 23.4% cumulative appreciation to 26.8%, which annualizes to 4.9% compounded. You should take note that that much appreciation basically covers a 4.9% mortgage rate…but it doesn’t help your cashflow in the interim. The 5 year compounded rate was 4.3% last quarter.

The five year outlook for home prices is the highest it’s ever been

Pulsenomics founder Terry Loebs commented on the drivers and consequences of the more bullish outlook:

Against the backdrop of tightening Fed policy and increasing mortgage rates, this more bullish outlook for home values suggests that home inventory shortages will remain the dominant price driver this year. If price increases this year for homes, rents, energy, and food each exceed wage growth – as the panel expects – home affordability challenges will intensify further, especially for low- and moderate-income renters.

Since exceptionally low home inventory is driving prices the respondents were also asked about when they expected this “problem” to be resolved. Almost none of them thought it would happen this year and many thought it would not happen until 2024. Of course the other big wild card in all of this is what rapidly rising mortgage rates might do to demand. If you’ve been following interest rates you know that they have really skyrocketed recently and that could cause the rapid retreat of buyers from the market.

Chicago Area Home Price Outlook

Once again I’ve turned to the Case Shiller home price futures market for insight into the outlook for Chicago area home prices. John Dolan, who happens to be one of the panelists contributing to the home price expectations survey and who is also the market maker for the Case Shiller home price futures, provided me with the data and graph below. 

From the end of 2021 to the end of 2024 the futures are implying cumulative price increases of 13.3% or 4.2% annualized and compounded. That compares to the national forecast of 18.4% over the same time period.

Chicago area home price futures imply modest appreciation over the next 3 years

John Dolan has also been following this sad story of Chicago’s lagging home prices so he produced this supplemental analysis which looks at the ratio of Chicago home prices to Case Shiller’s 10 city average both historically and projected based on the futures prices. As you can see that ratio has been going straight downhill and the futures prices project a continuation of this trend, albeit at a slower rate. You would think that Chicago could put a positive spin on this and market our greater housing affordability in attracting businesses to the area.

The ratio of Chicago home prices to the 10 city composite highlights how far Chicago homeowners are falling behind their peers in other cities

#RealEstate #ChicagoRealEstate #HomePrices

Gary Lucido is the President of Lucid Realty, the Chicago area’s full service real estate brokerage that offers home buyer rebates and discount commissions. If you want to keep up to date on the Chicago real estate market or get an insider’s view of the seamy underbelly of the real estate industry you can Subscribe to Getting Real by Email using the form below. Please be sure to verify your email address when you receive the verification notice.

Navigating the rough seas of the Pandemic has been a challenge for chef Martial Noguier and his wife Laurence, the thoroughly French owners of Bistronomic, a charming restaurant on Wabash, just two blocks north of Chicago Avenue. In the years since the restaurant opened in 2011, Bistronomic has earned a reputation for diversity, with featured dishes running the gamut from humble to haute. As a result, the owners have been able to implement changes during the Pandemic without impinging on their identity. Some of the most important changes have involved carryout.

“Carryout accounted for only a small percentage of our business pre-Pandemic,” Laurence explains. “We quickly sensed where the market was going, and by the time we reopened after the initial shut down, we’d stocked the necessary containers and were busy developing an array of dishes suitable for carryout.”

Dishes that travel well, such as boeuf bourguignon and coq au vin, are well suited for carryout, in contrast to fragile soufflés, intricate sauces, and a host of other marvels of French gastronomy.

The Noguiers soon realized that giving customers the option of ordering dishes portioned for more than one would be a plus, since customers frequently wanted leftovers for lunch or a second dinner. In a further innovation, the restaurant added a selection of prix-fixe, two or three-course dinners to the carryout options. Laurence says the feedback on all of the innovations has been extremely favorable, adding that even with the return of on-site dining, carryout continues to do very well.

Of course, not all of the innovations center on carryout. Bistronomic has also expanded its use of specials, and certain of the best sellers are now offered on specific days. Dover Sole, for example, is frequently served on Tuesdays. The fish is so popular that customers know they have to pre-order as much as a week in advance. And given that the fish is very expensive, the restaurant only orders a few more than they’ve already sold.

Bistronomic’s newsie e-mail also lists carryout specials for the upcoming weekend. Pate en croute joined the line-up on March 16 and Maine lobster bisque ($16) on Thursday, March 17. Bouillabaise, priced at $45 per person, was-on the other hand- featured from Thursday- Sunday. Carryout options are also available for on-site dining.

Not all the specials are about food. A recent innovation, Gypsy Jazz, is featured one Thursday a month (April 28, May 26). And with the return to warmer weather, the heated patio will -once again-be dog friendly. The restaurant also offers a wine club under the direction of sommelier Frank Ferru. The Wine Lover Program ($45) includes two bottles a month, as does the Sommelier Program ($80).

With so much going on, it’s not out of line to ask the Noguiers how they keep up the pace. Maybe it’s in their genes, given that Martial’s from Paris and Laurence from Lyons, arguably the best places in the world to sample French cuisine.

Laurence says their customers share their passion for French food, as well as their enthusiasm for positive changes.

“It’s hard to imagine anything good coming out of the Pandemic,” she adds. “But we’ve learned how to adapt, how to create options that work, both for us and for our customers. To survive, you have to innovate.”

Bistronomic, 840 N. Wabash 312.944.8400
The restaurant serves lunch Tuesday-Friday, brunch Saturdays and Sundays and dinner Tuesdays-Sundays.

OneChicagoDay was virtual again this year! Like we did the previous year, we thought that it would be a good idea for the fans to get a chance to ask what they’ve been dying to know about their favorite shows. The questions came pouring in on IG & Twitter, that we couldn’t keep up. However, we narrowed down the questions and selected a few for the cast and crew of each show. Unfortunately, due to limited time, Just N/Chicago Now was not able to ask all the ones that were selected but we tried our best to make it happen for the fans. Press play to check it out!

CHICAGO COMEDIANS IN THE NEWS

Chicago comedians are on the national stage talking about Will Smith, Chris Rock and the Oscars. Curtis Shaw Flagg, president of operations at Chicago’s Laugh Factory, appeared on Fox News here. Chris Redd was Will Smith on Saturday Night Live.

Colleen Brennan and Janice Rodriguez released the third season of Defending Indiana today! The two comedians welcome a series of guests who reveal surprising truths and humor about the neighbor we thought we knew (but didn’t until now). You can listen here.

Vicki Quade is putting her hit comedy platform to work to help Ukrainian refugees. Her production company Nuns4Fun Entertainment is collecting funds at all performances to help the Sisters of the Holy Family of Nazareth aid refugees in Poland and Ukraine. Enjoy Late Night Catechism, Easter Bunny Bingo: Jesus, Resurrection & Peeps, and Bible Bingo at the Greenhouse Theater Center or donate directly at nazarethcsfn.org.

The Laughing Academy in Glenview will host a mini comedy camp for kids K-5 during spring break on April 20. Details here.

Cathryn Michon and W. Bruce Cameron are donating all proceeds from the “A Dog’s Courage Tour” to UAnimals, helping animals on the ground in Ukraine and to Best Friends Animal Society. Order your personalized signed book from Book Soup by April 13. Put your inscription instructions in the comment section.

WGN anchor Pat Tomasulo has released his debut comedy special What A Time to Be Alive. You can see it here!

TICKET ALERTS

April 15: Fran Lebowitz at The Auditorium Theatre

May 7: Sarah Cooper at The Chicago Humanities Festival at UIC Dorin Forum

May 8: The Mothers at The Laugh Factory. Steven Springer hosts  Jan Slavin, Mariann Aalda, Linda Collins, Lindsay Porter, Rhonda Cohn,Diane Corder at The Laugh Factory.

May 12: Neal Brennan at The Den Theatre. Tickets on sale April 7.

May 15: Zarna Garg at The Laugh Factory

September 15-17: Jeff Ross at The Improv, Schaumburg. (His shows are great, but I’ll never understand people who volunteer to be roasted – and they will! It’s like stepping in front of an FBI sharpshooter. If you understand why, please tell me. Maybe it has something to do with the title of his book I Only Roast the Ones I Love. Truly one of the best comedy memoirs.)

October 13-16: Chris Rock added more shows at The Chicago Theatre. Tickets still available.

THIS WEEK:

At Zanies Chicago: Rachel Feinstein, Bonnie McFarlane, Jason Tartrick, Calvin Evans

At Zanies Rosemont: “Wednesday with Friends”, Raanan Hershberg, Rob Gleeson

At Riddles: Robert Kane hosts Comedian Stick

At The Improv: David Arnold, D.L. Hughley

Following are ten more original shows happening only in Chicago over the next five days. More advance ticket alerts on my giant 2022 calendar here. Please confirm all details before leaving home!

WEDNESDAY, APRIL 6

WTF Is Happening in Ukraine at The Annoyance, 8:00 p.m. A history lecture by Professor Lydia House.

Comedians You Should Know at Timothy O’Toole’s, 8:00 p.m. Jackie Cooper hosts Paul Farahvar, Gena Gephart, Dale McPeek, Mike Samp, Jamie Shriner, Pat Tomasulo.

THURSDAY, APRIL 7

Paul Farahvar‘s Stand Up Then Sit Down at Lincoln Lodge, 8:00 p.m. Top comedians do stand up and then sit down for revealing interviews. With Paul, Kyle Scanlan (Chicago Reader, Best Stand Up 2017) and Jonah Jurkens (Comedians You Should Know, Blackout Diaries).

Las Locas Comedy at Laugh Factory, 8:00 p.m. The Chingona Comedy Hour featuring Janice Rodriguez, Jess Martinez, Fab Monroe, Irma Ruiz, Jillian Ebanks, Susana Rodriguez, Yazmina Tega.

FRIDAY, APRIL 8

Second City’s 110th Mainstage Revue 7:00 p.m. and 10:00 p.m. Brand new material and cast. Often sold out. Advance purchase recommended.

John & Paul: Strictly Platonic at Rhino Fest at Pride Arts Center, 8:00 p.m. “Chicago sketch comedy veterans John Klingle and Paul Brennan bring their anarchic humor back to the stage in a raucous celebration of dysfunctional friendship.”

SATURDAY, APRIL 9

Paper Machete at The Green Mill, 3:00 p.m. Free comedy and music showcase. Always a stellar lineup. Arrive early for seats!

River Butcher at The Den Theatre, 7:30 p.m. River Butcher began their career in Chicago and is a nationally touring headliner. Bobcat Goldthwait opens. In 2021, River appeared on Comedy Central Stand Up Presenting A Different Kind of Dude.

Best of Annoyance Sketch at The Annoyance, 9:30 p.m. An hour of Annoyance’s funniest.

SUNDAY, APRIL 10

Keenan Thompson’s Ultimate Comedy Experience at Laugh Factory, 6:30 p.m. and 9:00 p.m.

6:30 p.m. Kristen Toomey and more TBA.

9:00 p.m. Correy Boyd-Bell and more TBA.

Levi Jordan (Photo by Stephanie Lynn)

MLB

The Cubs finalized their Opening Day roster this morning. As expected, three players open the year on the 10/15-Day IL, but one of the three was a surprise to me. I did not realize Alec Mills had suffered a lower back strain late in ST. His stint, along with Wade Miley (elbow inflammation) and Andrelton Simmons (shoulder inflammation), have been back dated to April 4th. This means reliever Mychal Givens is ready to pitch this first week of the season, and Michael Rucker has also made the team as a multi-inning reliever. Rosters have been expanded to 28 players for the month of April.

This is a good reminder that the new CBA pushed minimum IL stints for pitchers back up to 15 days (position player IL remains 10 days) in an effort to combat the roster manipulation several teams undertook last year to rotate fresh arms through their bullpen on a regular basis. Along the same lines, players no longer have an unlimited number of options to the Minor Leagues throughout the year. Teams will only be allowed to send a player down a maximum of 5 times during a season.

The Opening Day lineup has also been posted:

Here is today’s #Cubs Opening Day lineup! pic.twitter.com/RRi6XLut1T

April 7, 2022

AAA

Iowa 8, Buffalo 4

Game Recap

An extra base hit barrage by the Cubs built an early 5-2 advantage. Rain began to fall around the 4th inning and runs became difficult to come by for both teams the rest of the way despite some pitchers struggling a bit with control. Dixon Machado reached base five times and stole two bases out of the leadoff spot. Trent Giambrone scored three times. Iowa native Matt Dermody earned the win as he breezed through his first three innings of work in relief of starter Conner Menez.

Top Performers

Dixon Machado: 2-3, 2 R, RBI, 3 BB, 2 SB (1, 2) (.333)Trent Giambrone: 2-4, 2B, 3 R, RBI, BB, SB (1) (.500)Levi Jordan: 1-5, HR (1), 2 R, 2 RBI (.200)Robel García: 2-5, 2B (.444)Zach Davis: 1-4, 2B, RBI, BB (.250)Matt Dermody: 3.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, BB, K (W, 1-0)Erich Uelmen: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 KAneuris Rosario: 0.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, K (S, 1)

Injuries, Updates, and Trends

The first home run in the Cubs organization this season came off the bat of Levi Jordan as he managed to cut a two-run shot through the rain in the 7th. The utility infielder had a nice 1st half in Tennessee last year before injuries cut short his opportunities with Iowa in the latter half of the season. He’s got a bunch of veterans in front of him this year, but I expect the Cubs will still try to give him opportunities early to see if he can displace one of them.

Levi Jordan hits an oppo taco in the rain to give Iowa a 7-2 lead pic.twitter.com/LJJGHjkPLk

April 7, 2022

Brennen Davis struck out three times for the second straight game, but also walked twice.

Robel García already has three doubles through two games in his return to the Cubs organization.

The Cubs received 1.1 solid innings from former 4th round pick Erich Uelmen. The righty has mostly featured a sinker-slider mix from a low three quarter arm slot during his career which has always left him susceptible to left handed batters. He’s continued to work on a changeup over the years in an effort to combat this deficiency, and at least for his first game this season was able to work in several solid ones as he tossed 1.1 perfect innings of relief. If he can master that pitch this season he could offer the Cubs depth behind Scott Effross in the coming years.

With a confirmed date for retiring from my pathology practice firmly set in crumbling concrete the questions as to what I will do with my time in my post-doc life have become more frequent.

My previous post on the topic dealt with the obvious; become a speaker, a pharmacy rep, an IT specialist, or a medical writer. Those all sounded like possibilities when I wrote that blog a few years ago. But recently someone dubbed me (and Cooper the loyal pooch) a posse and now I know–that is what I want to be!

I am not going to tell you about the incident that led to my being anointed with the moniker, but as soon as I heard about it, I knew that occupation fit. I just love the way it is going to look on my future business card. “Les Raff Medical Consultant/Posse Guy.”

Now I know “posse” has a few definitions. It may mean someone’s “crew,” or a bunch of rappers getting together to cut or track or two. But that’s not the kind of posse I want to be.

Nope, I am going for the classic definition: a body of persons summoned by a sheriff to assist in preserving the public peace usually in an emergency. I want to go back to the Wild West…or at least to the Yellowstone Ranch.

I can see it now. The Yellowstone brand on my chest, over my heart. The theme music streams through my head. Dutton gets out the word that rustlers are headed towards our town. I kiss my ranch-wife goodbye, pack my pistols in their holsters, saddle up Peacekeeper my trusty stallion, and head towards my destiny.

Sadly, my fantasy ends right there. I just don’t know what happens next. I have never sat through The Good the Bad and the Ugly, or The Magnificent Seven, and am only on season one of Yellowstone. I’m not sure what crimes rustlers actually commit. And to be honest and transparent, I can barely ride a pony — and if I ever had to use a firearm I would undoubtedly shoot my own face off. But damn, I think I look good in a cowboy hat.

So I may not chase the dream. It is most likely that my retirement life will be very full and rewarding but a little less thrilling than being a posse. But I am warning you–don’t go rustling on my front lawn or the Raff Posse is gonna get you!

Like what you read here? Add your name to our subscription list below. No spam, I promise!
___

———————————–

A few weeks ago, I was checking out the artist’s poster for this summer’s Lollapalooza festival. Not at the top where the headliners are listed, but towards the bottom, where you need to increase the size of your screen to have the slightest chance in Hell of reading the names.

I was perusing them for two reasons: (1) to see if there was again that slightest chance in Hell that I would be familiar with any of them. (2) Maybe I’d find a band name I could tell jokes about for a future column about Lolla.

As for number one, nope, nothing. That was expected. It cemented my status as the old man looking up at the clouds. Part two was easier. When I found the band Wet Leg, I started laughing and snickering because I’m still a ten-year-old boy at heart. I assumed I could file this away until July. Again with that damn assume thing.

Then last week I ran across an article about the band. I laughed again because of that ten-year-old boy thing. But, I realized Wet Leg might be bigger and more popular than I would ever have guessed.

The next day I noticed they were scheduled to be the musical guests on the James Corden late-night show. Okay…okay…what’s up with this? I figured if they’re getting this much publicity, I should do some research to find out what the deal is with Wet Leg.

Wet Leg is a two-woman group from the Isle of Wight. Rhian Teasdale sings lead vocals and Hester Chambers plays lead guitar. The duo met while in college. They’re back by a trio of session and touring musicians.

Last summer they released their first single, “Chaise Lounge” which had more than a million streams and video views. They followed up with their second single, “Wet Dream”, (again with the ten-year-old boy laughter) to excellent reviews.

I also read that they play a form of the Americana music genre. If you aren’t familiar with this, think The Band, Lucinda Williams, and The Avett Brothers. It’s one of my favorite genres of music. It was time to check out the tunes of Wet Leg.

I went to YouTube and found ten of their performances. Some were from live shows on their recent tour, others were studio videos. None of them was anything close to the Americana genre (no idea how the reviewer came up with that) but it was pretty good.

The reason for the last four hundred words is Wet Leg will be dropping their first studio album today. Shockingly, I’m going to find some time today to check it out. I never would have dreamed I’d be doing this today a month ago. But, sometimes it pays to keep an open mind. You’ll never know what you’ll find.

And oh yeah….about that Lollapalooza poster. Here it is. Good luck trying to find Wet Leg.

Related Post: How do you know Lollapalooza is not for you?

Type your email address in the box and click the “create subscription” button. My list is completely spam free, and you can opt out at any time.