S&P Dow Jones’ CoreLogic Case Shiller home price indices for July came out a few hours ago and it shows the nation’s single family home prices rising a bit faster than June with a 4.8% gain vs. 4.3%. As for the Chicago area…at least home prices aren’t going down. The Case Shiller Chicago area index did register a larger gain than in June but on a much smaller scale – 0.8% vs. 0.5%. Sadly, Chicago remains at the bottom of the 20 metro areas tracked, right behind New York city with 1.3% annual appreciation.

Surprisingly, despite soaring inventory, Chicago area condo price appreciation is picking up speed and you can see it in the graph below if you look closely. Condo prices were up 1.6% from last year compared to a 1.4% increase in June. However, I don’t know how much longer this can continue with the market for condos deteriorating.

Chicago area single family home prices have shown annual gains for 93 consecutive months

Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices, was reluctant to get too excited about the numbers:

In previous months, we’ve noted that a trend of accelerating increases in the National Composite Index began in August 2019. That trend was interrupted in May and June, as price gains decelerated modestly, but now may have resumed. Obviously more data will be required before we can say with confidence that any COVID-related deceleration is behind us.

Case Shiller Chicago Area Home Price Index By Month

I’ve got the entire history of the Case Shiller Chicago area indices graphed below along with a trendline that I developed based upon single family home prices prior to the housing bubble. Single family home prices rose 0.5% in July while condo prices rose 0.1%, both of which reflect normal seasonal increases at this time of year.

There are a couple of things that should jump out at you from this graph. First, single family home prices are trailing that trendline by 28.0%. Second, home prices still haven’t recovered to the bubble high levels with single family home prices lagging by 12.3% and condo prices doing a little better but still lagging 4.7%. In fact, single family home prices are still below levels during the entire period from November 2004 – September 2008 while condo prices are below their September 2005 – August 2008 levels.

However, on a positive note, there has been a substantial recovery from the lows. Single family home prices are up 43.8% and condo prices have bounced back 57.7% from the bottom.

The Chicago real estate market still has a long way to go before catching up to bubble peak prices.

#ChicagoHomePrices #CaseShiller #HomePrices

Gary Lucido is the President of Lucid Realty, the Chicago area’s full service real estate brokerage that offers home buyer rebates and discount commissions. If you want to keep up to date on the Chicago real estate market or get an insider’s view of the seamy underbelly of the real estate industry you can Subscribe to Getting Real by Email using the form below. Please be sure to verify your email address when you receive the verification notice.