We got the updated S&P Dow Jones CoreLogic Case Shiller Chicago area home price indices this morning along with the indices for 19 other top metro areas and averages. Keep in mind that this data is for the 3 months ending in January so there is no effect from the coronavirus scourge reflected yet in the numbers. Yet, this home price data is pretty disappointing for Chicago.

First, although the Chicago area had a 0.6% year over year increase in single family home prices, that was the lowest rate of appreciation among the 20 metro areas tracked. New York, with a 0.8% increase, was second from the bottom of the list. The Chicago area also compares poorly with the nation as a whole, which appreciated by 3.9% from last year.

Second, condo prices broke the 86 consecutive month winning streak of rising prices for both single family homes and condos with a 0.4% decline. So that’s the first condo price decline in more than 7 years as you can see in the graph below. The rate of appreciation for both single family homes and condos has been on the decline now for a couple of years so this was not totally a surprise.

Chicago area single family home prices have shown annual gains for 87 consecutive months but condo prices fell for the first time in more than 7 years.

Case Shiller Chicago Area Home Price Index By Month

If you look at the graph below of the monthly index levels you can see how price levels are flattening out. That’s pretty depressing when you compare them to the red trendline that I calculated from pre-bubble single family home prices. We are currently 29.3% below that line.

We also remain pretty far below the bubble peak with single family home prices falling short 15.6% and condo prices 8.9% below the peak. That also means that single family home prices are lower than they were during the entire period from June 2004 – November 2008 and condo prices are lower than the period from April 2005 – December 2008.

Of course, we have bounced back from the bottom quite a bit. Single family home prices are now up a total of 38.5% from the depths of the market while condo prices bounced back by 50.7%.

You can also see the seasonality in the numbers from the graph, with us currently still in the winter down cycle. Single family home prices fell 0.9% from December and condo prices fell by 0.5%.

The Chicago real estate market still has a long way to go before catching up to bubble peak prices.

#CaseShiller #ChicagoHomePrices #HomePrices

Gary Lucido is the President of Lucid Realty, the Chicago area’s full service real estate brokerage that offers home buyer rebates and discount commissions. If you want to keep up to date on the Chicago real estate market or get an insider’s view of the seamy underbelly of the real estate industry you can Subscribe to Getting Real by Email using the form below. Please be sure to verify your email address when you receive the verification notice.