It’s hard to believe but the coronavirus pandemic is only two months old. It seems longer….a lot longer. Remember how scared you were in those early days? Remember how careful you were about everything? Are you still scared? Are you still as careful?

You walk into a grocery store, eyeing everyone as if they had the plague. Who knows….maybe they do? You move quickly through the aisles, grabbing what you need to feed yourself and your family. You check out without talking to anyone. You get out of the store as fast as you can.

You get home, unload the packages and wash them off. Are you still doing that? You can’t trust the grocery store workers, can you? Are you taking it as a matter of faith that they don’t have the coronavirus? Of course not. Even when you do curbside pick-up for your groceries, you’re extra careful. Why wouldn’t you be? A stranger is now handling every single item of your order. You’re now putting an extra set of hands between you and your food. An extra degree of closeness between you and the virus. Plus, what if the store screws up your order and you have to go inside to straighten things out? When that happened to one of my orders, I had to spend fifteen minutes inside, talking to three different departments, before they finally got it right. When I got home, I immediately stripped off my clothes and threw them in the washing machine, with extra detergent. I then took an long, hot shower as if I could wash away the virus.

I admit I was scared. SCARED A.F!!

What about when you order a meal from a restaurant? Think about how many hands are handling your food. How trusting are you or do you just take a leap of faith that everything will be okay? Sorry if I scared you.

Let’s take a simple meal at a fast food restaurant as an example. Someone will be working at the grill making your burger. Another person will be handling the deep fryer for your french fry potatoes. A third person is manning the soda machine for your drink. There may even be a fourth person who puts the meal into the bag and hands it to you. Then there’s the cashier who takes your payment. Yeah, I may be overestimating the amount of folks, but it is possible. For sure, there will be two folks handling your food….and with ready made food, you aren’t washing it before it goes into your body. Yeah, I know restaurants are taking strict precautions now…way more than normal. The workers are wearing masks and gloves. All work stations are disinfected often. Still….you never know. How could you?

Pretty scary when you think about it..and I’m sure most of us try not to think about it. Yet most of us are now doing it at least once or twice a week. That’s a pretty big leap of faith. That’s a lot of trust in other humans during a pandemic.

Every so often paranoid thoughts like this pop into my mind. Last week, I was watching a television show where they mentioned hot fudge sundaes. Mmmmm….sounds pretty good, doesn’t it. That’s what I thought, too. I wanted a hot fudge sundae, but the question was where? There’s a Baskin-Robbins down the street. It’s attached to a Dunkin’ Donuts where I get coffee a couple of times each week. If I can trust them to make coffee, why not a sundae?

I then started thinking about all the different parts needed to make the dessert. Three scoops of ice cream, a couple of different toppings, whipped cream, maraschino cherries…..got to have that cherry! One person can’t possible handle that…especially in a pandemic? The thinking became overthinking. I lost my faith in humanity. I lost my trust in the food industry. No hot fudge sundae for me.

It’s ten days later and I’m still thinking about that sundae. I still haven’t got one. I’m just not ready. I had to draw the line somewhere and apparently ice cream is where my line is. I never would have guessed that. I suppose I can head to the grocery store, get all the items needed and make my own hot fudge sundae. Ice cream, hot fudge, whipped cream and cherries….hmmmm…I wonder how many hands touched those?

Related Post: Would you consider the Olive Garden for your Easter meal?

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I may as well start with the good news. This morning S&P Dow Jones Indices released the March CoreLogic Case-Shiller Chicago area index of home prices and it shows single family home and condo/ townhome prices rising over the last year by the largest percentages in 8 months. If you look closely at the graph below you can see that.

So what’s the bad news? Well, the Chicago area’s annual home price appreciation has sucked so badly lately that it wasn’t hard to beat the last 7 months. All it took was for single family homes to rise by 1.5% and condo prices to rise by 0.6%. Meanwhile, all the other 18 metro areas covered by S&P Dow Jones (they actually cover 19 but Detroit was unavailable) did better than Chicago and the nation as a whole appreciated by 4.4%. The second worst metro area was New York with 2.1% growth.

Chicago area single family home prices have shown annual gains for 89 consecutive months but condo prices fell once again

Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices, pointed out that this data does not yet reflect the impact of the Coronavirus shut down on economic activity:

Importantly, today’s report covers real estate transactions closed during the month of March. Housing prices have not yet registered any adverse effects from the governmental suppression of economic activity in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. As much of the U.S. economy remained shuttered in April, next month’s data may show a more noticeable impact.

Personally, I don’t even think that April indices will reflect the impact because homes that closed in April were mostly under contract in March and, if I recall, Case Shiller shows a 3 month average of home prices. I think we might see an impact in the May numbers.

Now to make matters worse the Federal Housing Finance Agency released their house price indices this morning also. They track 100 metro areas across the country. Anyone want to guess how Chicago ranked? No, not at the bottom but damn close to the bottom at #93. Sad.

Case Shiller Chicago Area Home Price Index By Month

For historical perspective on where home prices have been check out my graph below that shows the actual index levels along with a red trend line for single family homes that was based on the pre-bubble years. Single family home prices rose 1.5% from the previous month and condo prices rose by 1.8%, both of which are consistent with the typical seasonal increase.

You can see how prices are flattening out, how they haven’t recaptured the bubble highs, and how they are falling further and further behind the trendline. Single family home prices are 14.3% below the peak and condo prices are 7.1% below the peak. In fact, single family home prices are still lower than they were during the entire period from August 2004 – October 2008 and condos are still lower than their levels from June 2005 – November 2008. As for that trendline, single family home prices are now 28.7% below it.

Of course there’s been a lot of recovery from the depths of the housing crisis. Single family home prices have bounced back by 40.7% while condo prices are now 53.8% higher.

The Chicago real estate market still has a long way to go before catching up to bubble peak prices.

#CaseShiller #ChicagoHomePrices #HomePrices

Gary Lucido is the President of Lucid Realty, the Chicago area’s full service real estate brokerage that offers home buyer rebates and discount commissions. If you want to keep up to date on the Chicago real estate market or get an insider’s view of the seamy underbelly of the real estate industry you can Subscribe to Getting Real by Email using the form below. Please be sure to verify your email address when you receive the verification notice.

In right-wing bubbles a Biden gaffe

Is always  fodder for a laugh.

But it’s so ironic

That for gaffes Trump’s iconic

And out on the golf course a perfect Falstaff.

There is a saying that goes “the best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry.” Considering the current state of the world economy, what does a financial plan look like?

In this economic climate there are 3 types of people, which do you identify with most?

• The financially prepared sitting on capital with great credit waiting to capitalize on an investment opportunity
• The financially perplexed have no clue of what is going on and are simply awaiting government handouts
• The financially piqued those realizing that getting their finances in order and are looking for money-making opportunities outside of their current jobs

Recessions and pandemics have been known to produce millionaires and billionaires, Jeff Bezos is perfectly positioned to possibly become the first known trillionaire as demand has increased for online shopping.  In the Chinese language crisis means opportunity and danger, the world is experiencing both meanings of the world simultaneously.

What Does a Financial Plan Look Like?  Here is an example of a Financial Pyramid:

The financially perplexed and piqued share similar struggles as neither of them have the proper financial foundation focused on protection.  Most skip protection and savings and go right to growth and risk in the form of stocks and real estate investment.   Could you imagine building a house from the roof down? Of course not, having a solid foundation is a key to any and everything one does especially as it pertains to their finances.

Take time to ponder is your financial foundation solid? The best way to answer this is by examining the current state of your economic affairs in the midst of this pandemic.  If you can confidently answer yes, awesome.  If you can confidently answer no, it is time to take the first steps to build your financial pyramid properly.

A big shout-out from Toyota Motor Company on May 18 that they will be introducing two all-new hybrid models. According to the leader in all things automotive, 2020 marks the 20th anniversary of the Toyota Prius Hybrid vehicle. To commemorate the anniversary, Toyota will produce two all-new Hybrid models, offering two 2020 Prius Editions, in two colors with unique blackout trim and features. Also new will be the Toyota Safety Sense 2.0, and manufacturer preliminary-estimated 52 combined miles-per-gallon.

In two decades, Toyota sold more than 6 million Prius vehicles worldwide and more than 3.6 million total hybrid models in the U.S. And it just keeps getting better. Difficult at first, for some, to get accustomed to, the Prius has engendered many true believers, some who won’t drive any other vehicle. This writer took a Prius on the road a few years back, from Chicago to Vermont. The handling, quiet and mpg were all very satisfactory. And the biggest plus was how much we packed into that Prius. It’s unusual (for the time) shape allowed for packing stuff from floor to ceiling.

Readers might remember when the Prius arrived, the year 2000 and Y2K…another unsettling time in history. The 2001 Toyota Prius was at that time, the world’s first production hybrid car. No question it did a lot to change how the automotive industry did business and what they could now offer.

Marking a special anniversary, Toyota’s Prius 2020 model will include 2,020 special models based on the well-equipped XLE FWD grade. Buyers can choose a Supersonic Red or new Wind Chill Pearl color, with black exterior trim and unique features like a color-keyed rear spoiler.

Something else to look for in the anniversary Prius are the black inserts for the 17-inch alloy wheels, blackout headlight components and trim B-pillars and mirror housings. Unique to this edition are a 2020 insignia key glove/fob and floor mats, a black shift knob and interior A-pillar trim and smoked HVAC vents.

Also looking ahead to 2021, the Prius, which already has Toyota Safety Sense (TSS-P) standard, will get the TSS 2.0, the latest version of the advanced safety system which includes Pre-Collision System w/low-light pedestrian detection (offering automatic braking capability); full speed range dynamic radar cruise control, bicycle detection, lane departure alert, automatic high beams, and road sign assist. Blind Spot Monitor with rear cross traffic alert and intelligent clearance sonar with intelligent parking assist will also be standard. Also for 2021, all but the Prius Limited add Android Auto compatibility. (Apple CarPlay compatibility was already standard on 2020 Prius models.)

Joining the Toyota lineup will be 9 other hybrid models and one of 11 electrified vehicles with Mirai a hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicle (2021). Corolla will be offered in a hybrid for the first time, joined by Camry Hybrid, RAV4 Hybrid, Avalon Hybrid, Highlander Hybrid, RAV4 Prime and Prius Prime.

Both sporty and elegant, the 2020 Prius will stand out, telling the world it’s still here and here to stay. The name Prius is Latin for “first” or “original,” also meaning “to go before.” Both sporty and elegant, the new Prius offers 54 city MPG/50 highway MPG/ 52 combined. Get your front row seat at the link before. There’s so much to tell about the upcoming Prius. Give it look online at: https://livestream.com/accounts/1607005/events/9122935

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