Trump Winning this Time would be an Even Bigger Upset
Tuesday at 4:39 pm
Two weeks to the day of the 2020 U.S. Presidential election, and the incumbent is probably done and dusted. Certainly POTUS 45, Donald Trump, has been behaving in a manner in which he believes he is. The Real Clear Politics polling average shows Democratic challenger Joe Biden ahead 51.1% to 42.5%, and that’s nearly the biggest lead that he’s ever had.
It’s well outside the bounds of the margin of error, and when you consider that 30 million Americans have already voted early, it’s a disheartening reality for Trump and his cult of followers.
Naturally, Biden is standing as the main favorite with odds at -166 but over the last few days Trump has improved his odds from +184 to +139. Although when we say improved, we have to remember that just last week, the reality TV star’s odds were as long as they have ever been. Another factor to consider is the stability of the odds, recently, in Biden’s favor. That’s reflective of the astounding stability that we’ve seen in the polling favoring Biden. It’s been a generation since we’ve seen the favorite in a Presidential race maintain a lead this consistently and comfortably.
It shows in the state polling too- as Real Clear Politics links polls that convey a sizable lead for Biden in Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Taking the Upper Midwest would be enough to claim the Electoral College for Biden, as Trump’s E.C. path is limited in routes. At Electoral-Vote, you’ll see Biden up 340-198, with a couple striking pieces of information. They count whomever is leading in their totals, no matter how slim the margin, and Trump’s 198 includes 38 from Texas, where he’s only up 2%, and 16 from Georgia, where he’s up just one.
That’s astounding when you consider how deeply red those two states have been in recent years. Obviously, the natural question is “well what about 2016?” Yes, Hillary was up, and all the people in the prediction business had her winning.
However, she was never up this big, the 2016 race showed much more volatility in the polling, overall, and at this point in the campaign, she didn’t have a near double digit overall lead while a significant chunk of the electorate had already casted their ballots.
No wonder Trump is saying goofy things at his rallies like “suburban women, please like me!” (lots of ways you can go in analyzing that statement) and “Joe Biden will listen to the scientists” (is that supposed to be an attack?). Just yesterday he even threw in a “if elected, Joe Biden would listen to Dr. Fauci.”
When you’re in a once-in-a-century pandemic, where 220,000 Americans have already died, and your opponent is claiming you would listen to the nation’s top infectious disease expert…why even campaign? Your opponent seems to be doing it for you. Just do the political equivalent of kneeling on the football three times and punt it back. Just keep doing that because your opposition just can’t help themselves.
Paul M. Banks runs The Sports Bank, partnered with News Now. Banks, the author of “No, I Can’t Get You Free Tickets: Lessons Learned From a Life in the Sports Media Industry,” has regularly appeared in WGN, Sports Illustrated, Chicago Tribune and SB Nation. Follow him on Twitter and Instagram.
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