Remembrance of things past?/ Remember Kodak and Polaroid?/ Remember the Walkman?/ Remember Phone Booths and the Rotary Phone?/Remember the VCR?/
today at 9:21 am
As much as the 2020 pandemic has drastically changed our lives, to coin an old expression “YOU AIN’T SEEN NOTHING YET.” A while back someone took the time to add their 2 cents to that “you ain’t seen nothing yet” expression. Probably some professor of economics isolated in home confinement. Listed below are 37 different predictions some of which already have proven to be true. Most or all of the following will become reality in 10-20 years. A good majority of us will not see the changes, but our kids and grandkids will. I listed the story of KODAK first because it’s quite stunning when you realize just how fast things changed for a billion-dollar company, almost overnight, but as you skim through the other 37 predictions a burst of reality takes over.
I will always remember a professor telling me that doubters and skeptics are usually the world’s biggest losers when it comes to imaginations. “REMEMBER BOB, NOBODY COMPLAINED THAT THE LIGHT BULB WAS TOO DIM WHEN IT WAS FIRST INVENTED.” Read through them at your leisure, whoever took the time to list them has me as a disciple. What’s your take? Is our future in our hands? Send me a comment.
1-In 1998 Kodak had 170,000 thousand employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide….. In just a few years, their business model disappeared…. and they went bankrupt, who would have thought that ever happening.
2-What happened to Kodak and Polaroid will happen in a lot of industries in the next 5-10 years and most people don’t even see it coming. Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on film again…. with today’s smartphones who even has a camera these days?
3- Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moores Law… as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment in the beginning before it became way superior and mainstream in only a few short years. Remembering the DIM lightbulb. When I read this the light did go on.
4- It will happen again (but much faster) with artificial intelligence (AI), health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture, and jobs.
5- A petrol /diesel engine has 20,000 individual parts…an electrical motor has 20. Electric cars are sold with lifetime guarantees and are repaired only by dealers…it takes only 10 minutes to remove and replace an electric motor.
6- Faulty electric motors NOT repaired at the dealership are sent to a regional repair shop that repairs them with ROBOTS.
7- Your electric motor malfunction light goes on …so you drive up to a place that looks like a car wash and your car is towed through while you have a cup of coffee, then your car comes out on the other side with a new electric motor or component.
8- Petrol pumps will go away.
9- Street will have meters that dispense electricity…. companies will install electrical recharging stations,…..in fact, they’ve already started in the developed world.
10- Smart major auto manufacturers have already started to designate money to start building new plants that build ONLY electrical cars.
11- The Coal Industries will go away…gasoline /oil companies will go away…drilling for oil will stop…so say goodby to OPEC..the Middle East is in trouble. They can only hope another Lawrence shows up.
12- Homes will produce and store more electric energy during the day than they use…it will be sold back to the grid…the grid will store it and dispense it to the industries that are high electricity users. Has anybody seen the Tesla roof?
13-A baby of today will only see personal cars in museums…The future is approaching faster than most of us can even handle.
14- Forget the book FUTURE SHOCK. Welcome to the 4th industrial revolution.
15- Software has disrupted and will continue to disrupt most traditional industries ( in the next 5 to 10 years)
16- Uber is just a software tool (they don’t own any cars) and is now the biggest taxi company in the world…. (ask any taxi driver if they saw that coming)
17-AIR-BnB is now the biggest hotel company in the world…they don’t own any properties….ask Hilton or the Marriot if they saw that coming.
18-Artificial Intelligence (AI) computers became exponentially better in understanding the world…This year the computer beat the best GO player in the world…Ten years earlier than expected.
19- In the U.S. young lawyers already don’t get jobs because of IBMs WATSON. You can get legal advice in a few seconds, so far the basic stuff with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So if you are studying law, stop immediately. There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future. What a thought, only omniscient specialists will remain.
20- Watson already helps nurses diagnose cancer…four times more accurate and many times faster than human nurses.
21- Facebook now has face recognition hardware that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030 computers will become more intelligent than humans.
22- Autonomous cars: in 2018 the first self-driving cars were already here…in the next few years, the entire auto industry will start to be disrupted. You won’t want to own a car anymore, as you will call a car with your phone. It will show up at your location and drive you to your destination.
23- you will not need to park it, you will pay only for the driven distance and you can be productive while driving. The very young children of today will never get a driver’s license and they will never own a car.
24- This will change our cities because we will need 90% to 95% fewer cars. We can transform former parking spaces into green city parks.
25-About 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents (worldwide), which includes distracted or drunk drivers. We currently have one accident for every 60,000 miles driven…However, with autonomous driving, that will drop to 1 accident in about 6 million miles. That will save million-plus lives worldwide each year.
26-Most traditional car companies will doubtless become bankrupt. They will try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car while tech companies(Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.
27- Look at what Volvo is doing right now… no more internal combustion engines in their vehicles starting this year with 2020 models…They are using all-electric or hybrid only (with the intent of phasing out hybrid models in the not too distant future…
28- Many engineers from Volkswagon and Audi are completely terrified of Tesla …Look at all the companies offering all-electric vehicles… that was unheard of a few years ago.
29-Insurance companies will have massive trouble also, because, without accidents, the costs of insurance will become cheaper… Their car insurance model will disappear…
30-Real estate will change… Because if you can work while you commute, or you can work from your home, people will abandon their towers and move far away to more beautiful and affordable properties…
31- Electric cars will become mainstream by about 2030, cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run only on electricity…
32-Cities will have much cleaner air…
33- Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean.
34-Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can see the burgeoning impact…and it’s just starting to get ramped up.
35- Fossil energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid in order to prevent competition from home solar installations but that simply cannot continue. Technology will take care of that strategy in the not too distant future.
36-Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year… There are companies who will build a medical device called the “TRICORDER” from Star Trek, that works from your phone, which takes your retina scan, a sample of your blood, then you breathe into it… it then analyses 54 bio-markers that will identify any disease … There are dozens of phone apps out there right now for health.
37- Hope some of you enjoyed the future. Welcome to tomorrow. Some of it actually has already arrived. Henry James was once asked, “HOW DO YOU WANT TO BE REMEMBERED.” HIS RESPONSE WAS —“FOR AS LONG AS POSSIBLE.” So much has and will change remembering it all will probably be generational.